Will have to talk
On the surface Pak-India friction is back to very disturbing levels despite Nawaz Sharif’s spirited outreach and Narendra Modi’s occasional reciprocity; casting a long, dark shadow on the upcoming SAARC Summit in November. The unpleasantness between Ch Nisar and Rajnath Singh was unfortunate, leaving the matter of India’s continued participation at the top level wide open. And the violence in Kashmir didn’t help, of course, nor did Modi’s comments about Balochistan. And Nawaz dedicating this Independence Day to Kashmir only showed that Islamabad will not shy away from replying Delhi’s pressure with some counter-pressure of its own.
Yet there are also signs that, despite the confrontation (and the mutual need to stay one step ahead), both sides have realised that, sooner or later, they would have to sit down and talk about the core issues. Despite the Rajnath episode sections of the press in both countries deduced that the home minister was sent to prepare for top level talks, including a Nawaz-Modi meeting on the sidelines of SAARC. Otherwise they could have done what Dhaka did and simply sent their high commissioner. That also explains Dar sb’s eagerness in pleasing the Indian finance minister – that is if he attends the SAARC finance ministers’ meeting in about ten days’ time.
In the meantime both sides can at least begin back-channel discussions on just how to go about discussing core issues. There will be difficulties, of course, so long as both define core issues in very different ways. This, exactly, was highlighted in the latest exchange, albeit indirect, between Sartaj Aziz and Sushma Swaraj; the former inviting Indians to talk on Kashmir and the latter wanting to put cross-border terrorism higher on the list. But the Indian government faces internal pressures of its own, with increasing demands for talking to Pakistan. SAARC could prove to be the watershed moment that finally gets both sides talking about what matters. Or it could be just another lost opportunity. It all depends on just how far both have realised the centrality of talks, on Kashmir as well as other issues.