Field marshal not a good option for Gen Sharif
The war in Afghanistan will spill into Pakistan due to geographical and geopolitical reasons. We know that there are hostile countries in the region who wanted to keep the pot burning
The Quetta attacks have once again set the security situation on fire. For the first time since the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, people are asking questions about repeated attacks just like Quetta. There can be no denying, of course, that Zarb-e-Azb has been a huge success. It has decimated the enemy’s command and control space, and driven many of them out of the country.
However, there are now concerns about plugging the blowback that keeps appearing in one form or another over time. A big part of the problem is non-implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP). That puts the interior ministry squarely under the spotlight. Over the last few months, even the military has grown impatient over the civilian government’s foot-dragging on NAP.
Now, after Quetta, there is a fresh resolve to implement NAP in letter and spirit. Are things going to change or is this pattern, of reduced yet deadly attacks, likely to be the norm for the near future, at least?
DNA talked exclusively to noted analyst Brig (r) Mohammad Saad Khan to help understand recent developments and their likely fallout.
Question: No doubt Zarb-e-Azb has been an outstanding success. Yet incidents of terrorism continue, albeit at a much slower pace. Do you feel this proportion of blowback is to be expected or have there been security lapses that can be fixed?
Mohammad Saad Khan: No one argues about the unprecedented success achieved in the Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Not only the terrorists have been flushed out of the country but a huge and significant territory has been retrieved.
As far as the possibility of blowback is concerned, one needs to understand that with the completion of Zarb-e-Azb, all kinetic operations by the armed forces have also come to an end. But some operations other than the kinetic ones would be carried out including Intelligence-Based Operations (IBOs), combing operations, etc.
But there is a need for the civilian government to take measures to consolidate the gains of the Zarb-e-Azb. There was an agreement to carry out non-kinetic operations under the 20-point National Action Plan (NAP). But unfortunately there is little or absolutely no movement on many of the NAP points.
Moreover, the possibility of blowback would remain a threat till peace in Afghanistan is not restored. Regardless of how much gains we make on ground in across Pakistan, the blowback would remain a threat as spillover from Afghanistan and related unrest cannot be blocked.
The war in Afghanistan will spill into Pakistan due to geographical and geopolitical reasons. We know that there are hostile countries in the region who wanted to keep the pot burning. For instance, India, Iran and some other powers want to keep Afghanistan burning. Some powers don’t want China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to succeed. So the possibility of blowback would be there as war is a lucrative business for some regional and world powers.
Q: Once again the entire leadership has vowed to implement NAP in letter and spirit. But they have done that after every major attack since Peshawar. Do you feel they will honour their promise this time, or will it be more of the same?
MSK: In my view, the federal and provincial governments have a track record of not implementing the NAP in letter and spirit. I don’t put the blame only to the federal government and rather I believe the provincial governments are equally responsible for the failure.
Perhaps the civilians lack the capacity and the will to carry out the much-needed non-kinetic operations under the NAP agreed upon between them. The civilian leadership, however, needs to undertake the difficult tasks. You know that reforms in the federally administered tribal areas (FATA) had been agreed upon in the NAP document but there is hardly any development in this regard. Some commitments were also made for frontier regions, settled areas and the semi-tribal areas of the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa which are yet to be implemented.
Same is the case with Balochistan where more than 80 percent of the area which is B-Area and is administered by levies. Police even can’t go and operate there.
But with these failures of the civilian governments, the army leadership is getting impatient now. You must have seen the handout issued by Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) on Friday after the Corps Commanders meeting which suggests that the army leadership is getting irritated and they want business now. This is because the military has completed its kinetic operations but now the civilian part needs to deliver the goods.
In a bid to get things done, the army might build pressure over the government because they don’t want business as usual. So the non-kinetic operations including IBOs and combing operations may be intensified as by and large, major operations by army have come to an end.
If you look at the track record of the civilian leadership, there is a possibility that the federal and provincial government would soon get their focus shifted to other issues. We know that Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Allama Dr Tahirul Qadri have announced agitation against Panamagate, the federal government may soon shift focus from NAP and this may trigger anger of the military’s top brass.
We also understand that the government would be reluctant to carry out madrassa reforms as the prime minister, already under pressure from PTI and PAT, would not like to open another front by annoying the religious parties. This opportunist attitude triggers unease among the military.
Q: With the news coming that COAS General Raheel Sharif is being tipped as the next field marshal, do you believe that the general would accept the offer? It is also being said that if he accepts the elevation, he might be given some powers and the office of Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC). If so, do you believe this elevation would help the institution or the individual himself?
MSK: I don’t know if somebody is asking for extension or the office of field marshal. I don’t think General Raheel Sharif would be pursuing an individual agenda as he has already refused to accept an extension. We also know that if General Raheel Sharif had an agenda, he might have easily overtaken during the dharna days when the political government was facing its worst time in office.
General Sharif has been apolitical and he has kept himself away from personal agendas. So there is no reason that we should believe that Gen Raheel would accept an office which is ceremonial and has no powers. So why such a powerful army chief would like to assume powers of a mere committee as CJCSC is a mere committee and nothing else. Field marshal office has nothing for a man who has enjoyed command.
But if somebody is giving such advice to the general, let me tell you it’s bad advice. General Raheel is not a type of a person who would like to take a powerless office.
Q: Why has there been so much confusion about who will control NAP up until this point? Why, for example, has there been no effort to integrate and share information between the dozens of security agencies that are spread across the intelligence landscape?
MSK: Yes, it’s a weak point for the army’s intelligence. We understand that there is a tendency in each institution that all intelligence agencies want to keep their information concealed. Every individual and institution wants to take credit of exclusive information its officers have achieved. But there is a dire need to get rid of this secrecy culture which is hurting Pakistan badly.
It is a disservice to the country if the lack of coordination and sharing of intelligence is hurting it. You need to link the dots to have a clear picture and intelligence sharing is just like linking the dots.
There was an agreement to establish a Joint Directorate of Intelligence at the National Counterterrorism Authority (NACTA) but I don’t know how much development has been made to pool the intelligence by military and civilian agencies.
Q: Is it a good idea for VVIPs to visit hospitals immediately after attacks? Isn’t that when they are rushing blood, supplies, etc, to hospitals that tight security for senior officials can obstruct?
MSK: This is, let me say, a difficult choice. If you are a VVIP and you go and visit hospitals immediately after attacks, there might be some obstruction in the normal services. But this helps boost the morale and spirits of the victims, their families and even the troops. This also helps send a very positive message to the nation that VVIPs are happy in taking calculated risks and they won’t leave their nation alone in difficult times.
You may remember that former president Asif Zardari never took this calculated risk as he never visited any frontline when in office. So he became very unpopular and it had a negative impact on the morale of the entire nation.
Q: What are your expectations from fresh combing operations that have now been launched? It is difficult to put a timeline on such operations, but still, how long do you think before we can a complete erosion of terrorism, as the army chief and prime minister have promised?
MSK: You know when there is involvement of some external forces in terrorism-related incidents, as we have in case of Pakistan, it is always difficult to put a time-bar on IOBs or combing operations. Keeping in view the geopolitical scenario, I think these would continue for some time till the time we are able to block the infiltration from our bordering areas and spillover effect from Afghan war.
Moreover, if the civilian leadership wants the military leadership to stay away and be involved in their professional matters, the civilians need to train the civil-armed forces and spend heavily in the capacity-building of these forces.