‘Re-discovering Central Asia’ alright
On the surface few ideas could make more economic sense than Commerce Minister Khurram Dastgir’s ambitions for Pakistan’s future trade with Afghanistan in particular and Central Asian Republics (CARs) in general. Rhetoric surrounding the Torkham border opening seems to have given the minister some bright ideas of his own, which he shared at the Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics Trade Summit (PACTS) the other day. Soon there will be more gates to ‘facilitate trade between the two countries’, with the possibility of a Preferential Trade Agreement with Kabul. All that is needed is for everybody to sign on the dotted line and “we would see uptick in the country’s exports and transit trade with these nations”.
But scratch a little beneath the surface and the minister’s optimism seems to have skipped some mandatory risk analysis; or even simply a reality check in this case. As welcome as a PTA with Afghanistan would be, it’s a somewhat distant possibility, to say the least, in the present setting. It’s not just that the two governments are not on the best of terms of late, it’s also that even security of trade convoys cannot be guaranteed across the border.
Mutually beneficial trade across Central Asia is in the benefit of all countries concerned, and definitely the way forward. But for the dream to even be a distant reality Pakistan and Afghanistan will have to overcome their security related problems. And the only viable way forward is for both countries to work together for the elimination of all kinds of terrorists on both sides of the border. Only when both have helped end the other’s war will the two be able to undertake trade initiatives, etc. Until then, building castles in the air will do nobody much good. The commerce minister said Pakistan was ‘practically re-discovering Central Asia’ with its trade initiatives. Perhaps he should discover the security breakdown that hampers free movement of labour and capital first.