“I’ll huff, and I’ll puff. And I’ll blow your house down.”
For the opposition and the ruling party, the priorities are clear: the government is poised to build on its last three years’ work and translate it into an electoral success by delivering on its campaign promises made during the last campaign while the opposition to disrupt, hinder and expose every small or major scandal or inefficiency in the PML-N’s governance structures.
As the country moves closer to the next general elections, politicians and political parties are gearing up for “Siyasi Joor Toor” with number of political heavyweights expected to jump ships and change allegiances to secure their political careers.
At present the most popular political ship in Pakistan is the current ruling party that is reaping all the benefits of improving security, economic and political situation in the country. The party’s recent landslide victory in the AJK elections and its much televised and marketed campaign to say goodbye to the IMF have further consolidated its position as it heads towards the next general elections.
For the opposition and the ruling party, the priorities are clear: the government is poised to build on its last three years’ work and translate it into an electoral success by delivering on its campaign promises made during the last campaign while the opposition to disrupt, hinder and expose every small or major scandal or inefficiency in the PML-N’s governance structures. Furthermore, while the opposition is banking on the Panama papers scandal to arrest the PML-N’s likely victory in the next elections, the weak front put by the opposition has further been hampered by the overall environment of stability in the country. The PPP and the PTI’s string of challenges against the PML-N begin with reviving their own internal structures and support base that has clearly been claimed by the later.
The PTI has promised to launch another wave of protests against the PML-N to build on the allegations that the Panama scandal’s probe has not taken place efficiently. From alleging that the Prime Minister has not undergone the heart surgery that took place a few weeks ago in London to filing a reference with the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) against Nawaz Sharif over alleged corruption, Imran Khan has made every ditch effort to carry on his politics of admonishing his opponents with abject allegations often unfounded. The PTI “lacks the trappings of a typical hierarchical structure, ideological and policy orientation of cadres and workers, and network of influential locals as potential winners in an electoral context,” says Muhammad Waseem in Pakistan at the Crossroads: domestic dynamics and external pressures.
At the last general election in 2013, Khan garnered his support base with the incorporation of some of the influential locals; however, over the last three years, khan has lost political steam due to his much criticised authoritative and dictatorial approach to run his own party on the one hand and lack of clear approach about his policy objectives on the other.
The PPP is facing its own existential crisis. The challenges facing the PPP are not just how it can revive itself as a national party again but are also tied with its organisation structure that is likely to fall apart with the party shrinking space and mandate. The PPP’s chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s dissolved all PPP organisations in AZK after a dismal and poor electoral show by the party in the recent general elections – PPP only managed to secure 2 seats – where it has ruled for a long time. The party has virtually vanished from Punjab. In Sindh, it has been cornered by the security agencies. The recent green lighting of unconditional powers to the Rangers has clearly perturbed the PPP’s senior leadership. The appointment of a new Chief Minister in the province is a one example of its poor performance that was trumped by a strong political pressure.
The PPP’s previous two electoral successes in general elections were focused on presenting the party’s identify and ideology of victimhood. With the rapidly changing national political dynamics, the party’s ideology of victimhood coupled with an absolute nonperformance has lost its touch with the masses and has become outdated. There is a lack of substance and vision in the party’s structure which has been consistently shaped around the theme of victimhood with the unnatural deaths of Z. A Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto, argues Muhammad Waseem. Bilawal’s active involvement in the party is a mere extension of this long held policy by the PPP’s leadership which is inevitable to fail.
Besides, the opposition’s threat to Nawaz Sharif can hurt the latter on two fronts: first, Sharif’s ability to deliver adequately in his remaining time in office that can directly or indirectly hurt the PML-N’s vote bank; second, the pressure which might develop due to the opposition’s protests and agitation, can force the Prime Minister into resignation, brining an in-house change. However, what will not happen is the likely collapse of the PML-N government.
The military in this developing situation will remain neutral as it does not credit anything from a political unrest at this point: the military has already devoured the federal government’s control over the security and defense polices of the country. In fact, the military doesn’t prefer any crisis when its security policies have started to bring dividends.
With more protests and agitation, the opposition will only lose its already stained credibility and time which if focused on delivering in their respective provinces, might win them some votes.
