‘It is the economy, stupid’?
Nisar, who has always harboured ambitions to be the foreign minister, was perhaps doing a trial run. But in his anxiety to please those who matter in the conduct of foreign policy in the republic it can be argued, he went overboard
Did the enigmatic interior minister, Choudhry Nisar Ali Khan, go too far at the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) interior ministers moot, in lambasting his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh? Like the traditional bull in a china shop Nisar is not known for restraint or mincing his words. But he perhaps felt compelled to forcefully put across Pakistan’s traditional point of view on Kashmir.
And the first salvo in any case came from Rajnath who implicitly slammed Pakistan for calling Burhan Wani a martyr. Sticking to India’s oft-repeated stance he hectored Islamabad that ‘there were no good or bad terrorists’.
But perhaps as the host Nisar overplayed his hand. He refused to have a proper handshake with Rajnath while welcoming his guests at the conference. Later on perhaps in a fit of rage the enfant terrible of the Nawaz team skipped the lunch for his guests hosted by him on the flimsy pretext that he had to attend a meeting at the Prime Minister House.
Nisar, who has always harboured ambitions to be the foreign minister, was perhaps doing a trial run. But in his anxiety to please those who matter in the conduct of foreign policy in the republic it can be argued, he went overboard.
Pakistan is hosting the SAARC summit due in November. As the host it should be redoubling its efforts to get all SAARC members on board.
But the opposite happened at the interior ministers moot where Delhi, Kabul and Dhaka seemed to have closed ranks against Islamabad. And Nisar — not very difficult to provoke — took the hook line and sinker.
Bangladesh is already miffed at Nisar‘s intemperate remarks at the hanging of Jammat Isalmi leader Motiur Rahman Nizami ostensibly for committing atrocities during the 1971 war. To express its displeasure, Dhaka decided not to dispatch its interior minister for the meet and was hence represented by its high commissioner.
The nexus between New Delhi and Kabul on Islamabad‘s regional policies is well known. Conveniently ignoring shenanigans of their own intelligence sleuths, both parrot the ‘cross border terrorism from Pakistan’ mantra in unison.
But Islamabad, nevertheless, will have to redouble its efforts not only to get all regional leaders on board but also provide a cordial and congenial atmosphere to hold the Summit. Perhaps both India and Pakistan, the biggest stakeholders, should be mending fences rather than bringing SAARC down under the weight of their bilateral spats. In this backdrop Nisar would have done better if he had shown some restraint no matter how great the provocation.
Another important development during the week was the holding of a meeting of Pakistani envoys from key world capitals in Islamabad. Prime Minister Sharif very candidly in his address acknowledged that much of the world had concerns about Pakistan’s national security choices.
Perhaps in the backdrop of the cacophony that Islamabad stands isolated in the region and in the world in general, Sharif wanted Pakistani ambassadors to address these concerns. Rather than merely lecturing the ambassadors the prime minister should have a heart to heart talk with the army chief General Raheel Sharif and some of the over zealous hawks within his fold as well.
Discussion with the military leadership is an ongoing process. As a result conceivably a lot has changed in the past few years. But as they say, ‘the more things change they stay the same’.Obviously a lot more needs to be done in order to walk the talk.
Sharif only implied about revisiting Pakistan’s national security choices. He is experienced enough to know that any tinkering with the traditional security paradigm will have disastrous consequences for any civilian government in Pakistan.
Obviously positive results can only be achieved through a continuous dialogue with the military establishment. One can go on and on about the sacrosanct principal of civilian control over the armed forces in a democracy. But it still does not apply here.
Nevertheless it has to be acknowledged that the present military leadership views strategic matters somewhat differently from its predecessors. For example General Raheel Sharif’s predecessor, General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, had his own views about how to deal with the existential threats confronting Islamabad.
Under General Kayani the military was loath to move against the Taliban on the pretext that it would be spread too thin, thus endangering its eastern borders. General Sharif thankfully proved him wrong by forcing the hands of a relatively timid civilian government and has effectively decimated the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) in the process.
The military still considers India as its existential enemy. That is why perhaps Sharif, despite his past enthusiasm, has become overly cautious about making any overtures to New Delhi.
But as a break from the past, India has not been able to blame so-called cross border terrorism for the current unrest in the Valley, primarily triggered by the brute force being applied by the Indian security forces. New Delhi knows it is an indigenous uprising that not only took it by surprise, but Pakistan and the Hurryat as well.
Perhaps time has come to revisit our national security driven external policies. In Sharif’s absence during his recent illness, advisor on foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz along with finance minister Ishaq Dar visited the GHQ to meet General Raheel Sharif. They apparently discussed with the top brass the firewalls that Islamabad is confronting in the conduct of its foreign policy.
Pakistan being a nuclear-armed state and having the sixth largest army in the world is no walkover. Its pivotal strategic position is also widely acknowledged.
Nevertheless in order to fully utilise its potential, Islamabad needs to move towards a policy not merely driven by strategic concerns but by promoting economic interests and trade as well.
China, which we are in the habit perennially praising as our role model, is successfully pursuing this policy with remarkable results. It also counsels us to do the same but we are obstinately stuck in the groove following obsolete cold war paradigms.
At a recent talk Moeed Yousaf, the associate vice president of the Asia Center of the US Institute of Peace based in Washington DC, implored that Islamabad should be using its strategic position for economic linkages in the region.
Perhaps he was advocating providing transit facilities to New Delhi and Kabul. But our strategists reckon that resolving bilateral disputes should be a sine qua non for that to happen. It is quintessentially ‘a chicken or egg’ story.
The good news, given by economic czar Ishaq Dar, is that Pakistan has successfully completed its IMF program. The economy is now stable enough obviating the need to negotiate another IMF program, he contends.
The prime minister has also crowed about record foreign exchange reserves. So far so good. But Pakistan’s GDP growth rate, exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) remains dismal.
But unless we are willing to reorient our policies towards boosting economic growth and trade Pakistan will remain stuck in its present dismal groove with all the appended problems of abject poverty and backwardness.
Why is the US wooing New Delhi at the expense of Pakistan? “It’s the economy stupid”. Not merely strategy.
