Lessons for Erdogan
Perhaps there is some strange connection, as some in the international press are trying to say, between Erdogan’s apology to Vladimir Putin and the tragic attack that rocked Istanbul Airport the next day. Perhaps there’s not. But it’s clear enough that Turkey can no longer afford to keep up the Middle East policy it has kept since the Syrian uprising, at least. That, among other things, not only led him to abandon the ‘no problem with neighbours’ policy that shot him to international political fame, but also initiate a costly chess game with Russia, which he eventually lost.
Erdogan clearly miscalculated the Syrian civil war, just like his new best friends in the Gulf. They expected a repeat of Libya, of sorts, and a quick removal of the Assad regime. But once the Syrian Arab Army dug in its heels and put up a fight, it became clear that the GCC-EU-USA-Turkey bloc – that was lobbying for Assad’s ouster – did not have a Plan B. In frustration, Ankara decided to do oil business with ISIS, just as some extreme Gulf actors did not mind if their billions ended up with Da’ish as long as the Ba’athists were out.
That, principally, is why Erdogan was furious – just like the Saudis – when Russia jumped into the fray. Then Russian jets bombed ISIS oil convoys near the Turkish border, then Syria’s army started gaining ground, and then Turkey downed Russia’s jet without warning. But then ISIS, typically, also turned its teeth towards Turkey. And now Erdogan has a compromised security situation, an economy in decline, the lira nose-diving, and trade shrinking to show for his actions. Little surprise that he has mended fences with Moscow. Next he must go a step further and actively join the coalition that is battling the monster that he, and his friends, helped create.