The Emerging Political Scenario

Polarised opinions leading to conflict

The likely confrontation between the government and the opposition parties led by PTI and PPP (and the consequences thereof) are subject of unremitting interest for the media and political analysts these days. Opinions regarding whether the opposition will be able to topple the government, or the government (as in the past), will be able to weather the storm, is quite polarised, which necessitates a reality check on the obtaining situation.

The PTI and PPP seem working on a two-pronged strategy: getting rid of the Prime Minister through legal avenues and street agitation. Accordingly, the PPP and PTI have filed references in the ECP for the disqualification of the prime minister, Shahbaz Sharif, Hamza Shahbaz, Ishaq Dar and Captain (retd) Muhammad Safdar for concealing their assets. The first option already exercised will be a long drawn out exercise according to some legal experts. The petitions cannot be heard before all the ECP members are appointed. The legal wizards on both sides will take their time in preferring and winding up their arguments and even the ECP might take some time after the conclusion of the hearings, to deliver its verdict. Nonetheless the move seems a cover-up option for the opposition who do not seem so sure of the success of the battle on the streets. They may not like to admit it publicly, but the fact is that they are quite apprehensive about it due to their own soiled credentials and low level of public support.

Now we come to the agitation that they are contemplating to launch. The success of agitations against the sitting governments, going by our checkered history, depends on the support and nod of the powers that be, like the PNA movement against Bhutto or the covert moves enjoying their blessings. As the things stand now there are no indications of any such possibility. The DG ISPR, in an interview with German media, categorically said that Army supports continuation of democracy. There is no reason not to take his words on their face value. It might even have been said in the backdrop of the emerging situation as a sign of caution to the detractors of the government that the Army would not take sides in their political wrangling or even meant to convey to them that the circumstances of the country do not permit political adventurism. That factor being not there the political parties would have to rely solely on their own strengths or otherwise.

The other ingredient in the success of a political agitation is a proven bad record of governance by a government. Here again the opposition parties have no strong case against the government.  During the last three years the government has certainly revived the economy and this fact is acknowledged by all the international lending and rating agencies as well as the international media.  The latest endorsement of a turnaround in the economy comes from MSCI, which has upgraded Pakistan’s status from frontier to emerging market after eight years. Transparency International in its three consecutive reports has indicated a nosedive in corruption. Recently the World Bank in recognition of the good performance of the economy has agreed to provide $1.02 billion. The phenomenon of terrorism has been checked in its tracks. Targeted operation in Karachi has proved a great success and the city is fast returning to normalcy. Insurgency in Balochistan has also been effectively neutralised. Over all, the law and order situation in the country has also improved.

The energy crisis is on the wane due to the addition of 3000 MW of electricity to the system and the import of LNG. New power projects under CPEC which would contribute 10,640 MW of electricity by the end of 2017-18 have been set rolling. The development of infrastructure under CPEC also promises a game changing scenario. There is hardly anything worthwhile in regard to the performance of the government that the opposition can exploit to launch a successful agitation.

Regarding the Panama Leaks, nothing in these reports implies and suggests that those who own these companies have established them with the ill-gotten money. The other factor is that even those agitating against Panama Leaks also have among their ranks those who own shell companies. Therefore they in no way do not stand on a higher moral ground vis-a-vis the government. In the absence of proven corruption, the people would not be tempted to come on the streets to serve the political designs of some power hungry elements or those out to enact political vendetta against the government.

The other factor which goes against the opposition parties is their own credibility and past record. PPP is at the lowest ebb of its popularity and all its leadership including its co-chairman bear the stigma of indulgence in massive corruption. Two of its former prime ministers are under investigation for misuse of authority and corruption. Memories of Surrey Mahal and Swiss Bank accounts are still fresh in the minds of the people.  PPP has been severely mauled in the 2013 general elections in Punjab which indicates its lack of popularity in the province. The performance of PPP government in Sind also leaves much to be desired. Under the circumstances it has no mass appeal to constitute a threat for the government.

PTI is also a party of turn coats and people who have dubious credentials. Imran has never been in power therefore no corruption scandal is attributed to him. But as a politician he has proven to be man who is salivating to reach the corridors of power by hook or crook. His sponsored sit-in along with Qadri has immensely damaged his reputation of a revolutionary which people wrongly perceived him to be when he made a dash to the political horizon. His politics of violence and agitation has not endeared him well to the masses, as is evident from the defeat of his party in the by-election for NA and PA seats as well as mauling in the Local Body elections. His rigging mantra has been rejected by the judicial commission. His party has not performed well in KPK. Stories about corruption by the chief minister and his cronies are the talk of the town. Some MNAs of the party have also lodged a protest against the corruption of the chief minister. The party also has differences among its top leaders. Imran Khan himself has been the owner of an off-shore company. With such tainted political history he would find it very difficult to have a sea of people on the streets that is essential for the success of an agitation. MQM, PML-Q and the one man party of Sheikh Rashid also have a very unenviable political record and hardly have any mass appeal.

My considered view is that the agitation against the government is not going to take off the way the opposition would like to see it going. They will not be able to sustain it for a longer period. Though the agitation might distract the attention of the government from tackling the inherited challenges and force it to focus more on thwarting the machinations of the opposition parties, but it would surely manage to wade through the storm in the tea-cup, unscathed.  In case it manages to fully tide over the energy crisis by the end of 2018, the PML-N will surely be in a position to win the public franchise again.