Pakistan’s diplomatic logjam

CPEC is the only answer to India’s doctrine of economic strangulation

Mobilisation of the required financial resources promptly for smooth execution of work on the infrastructure projects is necessary including KKH-II (Thakot-Havalaian section) and Multan-Sukhur Section of Karachi-Peshawar Motorway, Matiari-Lahore Transmission Line, ML-1 Railway Track, etc

The 21st century seems kind to Asian nations which, seemingly, are finally on the way to progressive nation-building. They are thriving through diplomatic moves, through moving and shaking alliances of friends, etc. Unfortunately, though, Pakistan is still just another one of those cases that continue to grapple with one the worst foreign policy crises of its history. It says a lot that despite a long alliance with Pakistan, US President Barrack Obama now sees India as his country’s new strategic partner in Asia. Iran is coming out of its decades-long international isolation, while Afghanistan has turned fast to Iran and India.

Where, then, does Pakistan stand?

Pakistan is facing unprecedented regional, internal, and security challenges. An article ‘Let Us Engage Pakistan In A New And Non-Diplomatic Way’ by Kriti Upadhyaya and Rahul Deans, recently published in India, suggests India should adopt measures that can be taken quietly to exacerbate Pakistan’s economic problems by hitting at its exports, especially textiles, which make up over half of Pakistan’s export basket, led by cotton products. It says any dent to Pakistan’s exports could push its deficit over the edge, helping Indian farmers in the process. Another proposal is to target Pakistan’s manpower working overseas as remittances (mostly from the Middle East) are Pakistan’s second biggest source of foreign exchange.

The article goes on to say that India should not export electricity to Pakistan and should also stipulate that foreign companies bidding for projects in India cannot be suppliers to any Pakistan state-run organisation. Visa denials for Pakistani executives would have a far bigger impact on the Pakistani business environment than a visa denial to a performing artist, the article said.

The developing of Chabahar port in Iran and development work in Afghanistan are `baby steps’ in what should be a much larger intervention to develop Afghanistan and use it as a base to undermine Pakistan.

India is also planning to use Afghan soil to segregate Pakistan. Afghanistan has zero duties on many items which have high tariffs in Pakistan. India is planning to export these items to traders in Afghanistan, who smuggle them across into Pakistan, which will not only undermine Pakistan’s import duty collections, but also finance freedom fighters in Baluchistan – whose representatives can handle distribution into Pakistan.

India needs a military presence (to train the Afghan army) in Nimroz province — bordering Iran and Baluchistan (where it has built the only highway in the province), along with enhanced development of the railway from Iran to Afghanistan and increased development work. India’s relations with Iran and Afghanistan have never been better and their relations with Pakistan have never been worse, which gives India the perfect opportunity to enhance its profile in the region, says the article.

Is Pakistan ready to face these challenges?

‘No’, one would say as Pakistan’s foreign policy is literally paralysed as neither is Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif ready to deliver on the foreign policy front nor is he ready to appoint any of his comrades for the task.

In interstate relations the foreign trips of chief executives are of the utmost importance. Every foreign trip is undertaken after thorough consultation between civil and military establishments on the presumption of meaningful results.

Just take the proposed visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pakistan that couldn’t materialise due to the failure of the foreign ministry. Russians wanted Pakistan to agree to certain agreements during Putin’s trip for which Pakistan failed. Putin chose to stay back.

Sharif also lacks diplomatic skills. He has made record foreign trips over the past three years but only to intensify the chronic diplomatic logjam. Today, we have strained relations with most of our neighbours; the eastern Afghan border is hostile while Afghanistan, with a history of conflicts with Pakistan, is exchanging fire at Torkham. Though China and Iran have conventionally stood by Pakistan, Iran’s Chabahar Port is bringing Delhi and Tehran closer.

In midst of this regional perspective, Sharif, who also has the portfolio of foreign minister, is reluctant to act.

Sharif is altogether different from founding father Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah who in mid-1940s was diagnosed with tuberculosis. Fearing information about his ailment may have a negative impact on the freedom struggle, the Quaid refused treatment and repressed the news of his illness so that enemies don’t get to know and delay the independence of Pakistan.

On the contrary, Indian premier Narendra Modi has smartly took new foreign policy initiatives which would benefit India drastically. Though the move to woo Arab monarchs has not resulted as desired but a significant initiative has been made.

While the US plans to contain China by encircling it with its allies in the South China Sea; India is implementing an ambitious plan to strangulate Pakistan diplomatically and economically. Taking full advantage of holes in the foreign policy of Pakistan, Modi is trying to encircle Pakistan with hostile neighbours.

The diplomatic offensive of Modi is aimed at winning support of our traditional allies and our neighbours in a bid to isolate Pakistan. Indian premier’s recent trips to Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iran and Afghanistan are a part of the same initiative. China, however, is an exception and it is fast becoming Pakistan’s most trusted strategic ally.

Modi’s move to go into an alliance with Tehran is a diplomatic faux pas which could open a new vista of opportunity for Pakistan to bounce back. No country in the world can fool Arabs and Iranians at a time. Even the US has failed to take the two along.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia and other gulf states are potential partners Pakistan needs to work on as they can’t go along with India after it has picked their enemy, Iran, as its strategic partner in the region.

Relationship with Afghanistan has always been a rocky path for Pakistan. The recent skirmishes at Torkham border reflect the thorny relationship.

We need to review why we have failed to win hearts and minds of Afghan people despite fighting against USSR. It is a shame that we could not convince Afghanistan of our friendship despite carrying back thousands of coffins of our unsung heroes who fought for liberation of the Afghan people.

It is disturbing to note that we could not befriend over four million Afghan migrants who were provided shelter, food and even employment at the cost of our own people. They were given equal opportunities in terms of basic necessities like education, health and other facilities on the hard earned money of our taxpayers. Now, the same Afghans whom we housed and nurtured are scowling us with blood in their eyes. This change is the ultimate failure of our foreign policy.

Iran, the founding member of RCD and oldest regional ally of Pakistan along with Turkey, is now considering India as an alternative. India is continuously aiming to turn Iran into Pakistan’s foe. The recent traces of Iranian involvement that came to the fore after the capture of Indian spy, Kulbhushan Jhadev, and the incident involving assassination of Mullah Akhtar Mansour clearly point toward the failure of our foreign policy.

CPEC the optimal solution

When we look around us for help, all we see is China and to some extent Turkey standing beside Pakistan. In the past couple of years, China has used its veto power a number of times in favour of Pakistan. This certifies that China is no fair weather friend of Pakistan. Central Asian states are also chipping in to help broaden economic ties with Pakistan.

The game-changing multi-billion-dollars project, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is another testimony suggesting that China has chosen Pakistan as its strategic ally. CPEC is the key not only for Pakistan but also for China. The project is a flagship venture of the One Belt One Road initiative of President Xi Jinping, who is determined to develop road and maritime links of China with the rest of the world.

The belt and road initiative is the answer to all conspiracies being hatched to contain China. While CPEC is the linchpin in thwarting all enemy plans against China, it has also provided a historic opportunity to Pakistan to benefit from its strategic location. Pakistan is the pivot to almost all trade routes linking the East Asia to Central Asia, Middle East, Europe, America and Africa.

Moreover, CPEC is also the instrument to foil the Indian designs to strangulate Pakistan economically. India has already cut Pakistan’s water channels flowing in from Occupied Kashmir.

A sustainable economic growth can be achieved by having major thrust on the export sector, which is facing crisis due to myopic policies of the past. Pakistan eyes $150 billion in exports by 2025 under Vision-2025, which requires a paradigm shift in nature and composition of exports by adding value and introducing innovation in the existing export regime. CPEC would be instrument in achieving this ambitions target.

The government plans to take its growth rate to five per by the end of this financial year. Energy projects under CPEC would largely help the country get the power shortage issue addressed by 2018.

The growth rate can witness a high jump once the energy shortage is resolved by 2018.

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline and KASA 1000-MGW are the major projects for economic integration and regional connectivity, which would enormously benefit Pakistan and the wider region.

Fast track work on these projects is necessary to tackle the energy crisis and power needs of industrial zones in future under CPEC. With the completion of the energy projects in early harvest projects, 10,000 MGW would be added in national grid by 2018 including Bin Qasim Power Plant, Thar Power Plant and Sahiwal Power Plant. Progress on projects in energy, road infrastructure, railway and Gwadar under CPEC framework is also satisfactory. Smarter and scientific approach should be adopted while carrying out the work on CPEC projects.

Mobilisation of the required financial resources promptly for smooth execution of work on the infrastructure projects is necessary including KKH-II (Thakot-Havalaian section) and Multan-Sukhur Section of Karachi-Peshawar Motorway, Matiari-Lahore Transmission Line, ML-1 Railway Track, etc.

Hence, Pakistan can thwart all enemy plans if swift implementation on CPEC is made. For this target, civilian and military leadership would have to rise above petty differences and hold the national cause supreme.