You can smell it in the air. There is a storm cooking in Imran Khan’s basement. I think he knows this is his last chance at toppling the government. Let’s face it. If the government enters its final year, there will be an air of inevitability about it – if you couldn’t topple the government after four years and multiple sit-ins, you won’t be toppling it in the fifth.
And Tahirul Qadri is the first volley in what Imran Khan hopes will be a long and sustained attack.
Right now, the opposition is being slapped around in the Parliamentary Committee (which may be over) because they neither have votes in the assembly nor protestors on the ground and to top it all off, the PM just had a heart surgery. What kind of a heartless person tortures a bleeding heart (literally, a bleeding heart)? Khan is hoping Qadri can roll a hard six and change at least some part of the equation for him.
As soon as the weather turns, Khan is going to take his own shot. He has accomplished the hard task of keeping the opposition united, but the task ahead is even harder, and his hand is still fundamentally weak. Let me explain:
The biggest prize for Imran Khan is Asif Zardari, but I think we can all agree that Zardari is no ideological animal. In fact, he’s the one who eats those animals.
Zardari is with Imran Khan right now, but that is more a reflection of Zardari’s needs than it is of Imran’s resolve.
Two years ago, at the time of the sit-in, it had been only one year since the election, and with all the reasons the PPP lost the election so badly still fresh in people’s minds, what was Zardari to do? Topple the government and pave the way for another humiliating defeat? Besides, Asim Hussain and the check on Sindh government through the Karachi operation hadn’t happened yet; so, there was literally no reason for Zardari to go and join the pretender.
But the fact that Asif Zardari was able to finish his five years as president despite many challenges along the way – a popular movement, financial scandals left and right, memo-gate, extremely bad load shedding and even worse law and order situation – is looking less impressive with each passing day because we now know that there is only one way a government ends – I don’t know about the past, but in future it will be through a tweet, which tells you to sort it out or else…
But if Khan is to bring the army into play, he needs the current dynamic to either break down completely, or he needs something to offer to them that Sharif cannot. Sharif has fully cooperated with the army – he has made no foreign policy of his own; he has given security policy to the army inside the tribal areas and in at least three provinces, and he is ready to give up the fourth too, if the army really wants it; he even left his BFF Zardari in the lurch for them – there is virtually nothing they can ask that he might say no to. It is not clear if Imran Khan can do better. So, at the moment, the army appears happy to let the pieces fall where they may.
If the people have to topple a government, they have to topple it really, really hard. I mean, the purpose of a government is to get re-elected – and there is nothing wrong with this thinking; after all, if you really believe your policies you’ll think it would be a disaster if you don’t get re-elected and if you don’t believe in your policies, well, then I guess there is nothing else to do but to get re-elected, whatever the cost. If a government is forced to resign by the people, what is it going to do? Go back to the same people and ask them to vote for them again? No, it is far better to stick it out and hope they will forget by the time the elections come, or at least give them marks for not yielding.
Besides, we just established that getting elected is the goal. They GOT elected. Why would they resign?
So, what happens now is almost beyond what people can do. It is certainly beyond what Imran Khan can do.
And yet, it is the fourth year, and it is time to take the shot. Not taking the shot is as good as losing it and that won’t do. So, here we are. Khan has given himself the best chance; he has tried to learn from his mistakes, but will it be enough? Well, let the games begin!
