Look to the future

And not in the past

Americans waited for seven hours before notifying the Pakistani authorities of their unauthorized intrusion into their airspace without permission or prior intimation and bombing a valuable target. The movement of the suspect had been tracked precisely by communication intercepts and intelligence. Multiple armed drones flew at a route and altitude that avoided Pakistani radar detection, selected an appropriate spot and fired the missiles.

During these few hours, no word, reaction or protest appeared from our official sources. It is still uncertain if our extensive communication system, checkposts on the ground and intelligence network remained unaware of the unusual activity in its territory due to its lack of human intelligence or lack of capacity to monitor the waves. Or silence was adopted as a deliberate option.

It is the second time such an incident of blatant breach of airspace and territory was executed in Pakistan by the US army (countless others are with our tacit consent). On May 2, 2011, helicopter gunships with a contingent of highly trained SEAL marines on board flew low from an Afghanistan base in a similar maneuver and landed in Abbotabad (close to Pakistan Military Academy) with the mission to kill Osama bin Laden in the house he was living with his wives and take away his body. They successfully achieved the objective within thirty eight minutes. No resistance or obstruction was forthcoming from any quarter, despite the location of the ‘invasion’ being an army town. Our security forces descended on the scene (only to clear the debris) after the American helicopters had safely returned to base reporting mission accomplished.

Intriguingly, our spokespersons refused to acknowledge one of the persons killed in the May 22 drone attack to be Mullah Akhtar Mansoor (the other destined to be a collateral damage), even after President Obama had confirmed the ambush and the death. Perhaps it was too embarrassing for our government to accept that the ‘most wanted’ top insurgent Ameer of Afghan Taliban was travelling freely with a Pakistani identity and passport while we had consistently denied his presence in our country. Even more humiliating was the fact that he was tracked, found and eliminated in Balochistan (and not in FATA) that had been out of bounds for the US drones and air strikes.

The muffled verbal protests by our interior and defence ministers and foreign office appeared mere sheepish rhetoric aimed at domestic consumption. The use of fancy phrases such as ‘against UN charter and international law and the violation of our sovereignty’ etc. sounded as meaningless, impotent and frivolous as the denial of Taliban sanctuaries within our borders. Yet again, it was the COAS, who justified his driving seat position by summoning the US ambassador in GHQ for a formal explanation.

The operation was no doubt a considered maneuver authorized by the US president and prompted by his frustration over the much trumpeted peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government that Pakistan was expected to deliver but could not, within their time span. President Obama is anxious to leave a legacy if he could declare a victory in Afghanistan before his term of office comes to an end and bring his troops back home. This would be a milestone for him and his party during an election year that could significantly enhance the chances of the Democrat nominee to win the November presidential polls. As timing is of essence, he decided to be proactive, disregarding the sensitivities of the Pakistanis, who to the American minds have now become irrelevant.

From the American perspective, Pakistan’s interests have ceased to coincide with theirs (and it is about time). The importance of our geographic location that paid us dividends for several decades has now been redefined. Afghanistan is likely to remain turbulent in the foreseeable future, reverberations of which will continue to spill over in our territory. The Americans will soon lose much of their interest in the region, as their primary concern has already shifted to countering and resisting the growing influence of China globally.

We share a 2450 km long uncontrolled border with Afghanistan that does not recognize the Durand line and is hostile to our proposal to mark and fence the boundaries. Interlinked families inhabit on either side of the border and travel across freely. Many of the over 3 million Afghan refugees living in camps in KPK since the 1980s have moved up-country to set up businesses and residences with their families and have acquired Pakistani identities. No matter how hard we try, most of them have absorbed themselves in our social structure and will be here to stay.

Pakistan is therefore entangled in an extremely complex cobweb of ethnicity, race, tribal rivalries, politics and terrorism imported from the neighbouring nation and fuelled by Indian hostilities. Striving for peace and a stable Afghan government appears to be a daunting task that is now beyond the control of either. Our infamous policy of strategic depth and duality in dealing with various interest groups has turned us into a pariah for the world. We nurtured the Afghan (and Pakistani) Taliban and provided them safe havens in our remote areas. Now we have lost all influence over them and they have become a threat for our very survival.

Historically, Afghanistan has always eyed us with suspicion despite commonality of religion, language and culture with our KPK. These suspicions have compounded in recent years. Meanwhile, India has cultivated the Afghans by making infrastructural investments and providing them support in military and intelligence fields. Indians are exploring alternative routes for trade, as we have not allowed the transit facilities. We share a border with Iran too. Yet, both Iran and Afghanistan are leaning towards India instead of their immediate neighbour, as they find India more transparent, resourceful and responsive to their business overtures, forming alliances and joint venture partnerships. We have forfeited the advantage of a common religion, border and people’s goodwill.

Unfortunately, even during military regimes our foreign policy has been vague and pursued in a clandestine manner by playing one against the other. During civilian governments conflicts with the army persisted. The army will not let go of its influence at the national level and its hold over a large chunk of our budget, for which the bogey of enemies and war need to be kept alive. The stumbling block is that neither is prepared to give in or to carve an amicable working relationship.

With our economic progress rated among the lowest in the region, internal political strife, cool relations with all our neighbours and international isolation, our first priority should be to forge a unity between the civilian and military leaderships. The prime minister must provide a firm and strong leadership and a clear foreign policy that should be linked with our economic policy of rapid industrial development and uplift of masses. We must stop living in the past, be pragmatic and convert all our imaginary foes into real friends by non interference and diplomacy. We must rely inwardly on the 200 million industrious people instead of looking outwardly towards the Americans or the Chinese. The world is moving on at a galloping speed to new heights with innovation and constantly changing parameters utilizing their inner strengths. We should not be left so far behind that we cannot even see their tail lights.

Providing primary education and access to health to all  are two imperatives for our survival as a respectable nation. Presently, our leaders (all past retiring age) seem to be living in the past. The world is moving on at a galloping speed to new heights with innovation and constantly changing parameters and we are left so far behind that we cannot even see the tail lights.

Our stumbling block is that our politicians are not prepared to change their decadent outlooks, their inherent prejudices, religious bigotry and greed that they have utilized to maintain their hold on power. Agitation has become a favourite pastime for those not in power. It is time that the common people who have been denied a voice and have been kept backward are taken on board. The rulers must establish that they are working for the people. Unless a confidence can be ingrained in the public that the government is working for them, our future will be worse than our past.