Improving the budget
The post budget debate in the National Assembly did not go too well for the government. The immediate rejection of the budget speech was not just a knee-jerk thing after all. The opposition, particularly PTI, has presented too large a charge sheet to be dismissed out of hand. The thing about fudging figures – including the growth rate – especially, is a very serious charge, and if backed up by proper evidence, needs thorough checking and explaining now on part of the government.
Noted economist Dr Hafiz Pasha first raised the storm on the budget evening itself, implying that the real GDP growth figure was nearer to 3.1 percent than 4.7 percent. But other than fudging, too, PTI ‘finance man’ Asad Umar raised questions that the government will have to answer. Even if growth is above 4 percent, historical average still puts the last few years in the lowest growth bracket in fifty years. Investment, currently at 15.1 percent, is lowest in six decades, according to Umar. What is also chilling is that while the PPP government amassed an annual Rs 1.2 trillion in debt, in the first three years of the present government the annual increase in debt has risen to Rs 2 trillion.
All this presents a rather sobering picture of the economy, contrary to Dar Sahab’s boasts at the budget. But if taxes are at a historical low, exports are stagnant, agriculture just crashed through the floor, and even the steel mills is shut down for eight months, can growth really be on a sustainable trajectory? Dar Sahab, like every other Pakistani finance minister, has been consistent only in missing budget targets time after time. So there is only so much legitimacy in the budget speech itself. The exchange in the Assembly takes place precisely because the government needs to clarify ambiguities. And since the opposition has put up some serious charges, it must present appropriate proof. And the government too must prove that it has not lied to the people.
