Jockying for NSG membership

What’s in store for Pak-India?

Both Pakistan and India are vying for the membership of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. It is ironic that the Group, which was set up in response to the Indian nuclear test in May 1974 with the aim to further limit the export of nuclear equipment, materials or technology, is being asked to allow India to join it. NSG membership would give greater access to both the applicants to the international nuclear market. In addition to opening up nuclear commerce, the NSG can be a source of legitimacy for a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT and for regional power projection.

The US has been lobbying for India. China is intent upon blocking India’s entry The NSG is a closed club that makes decisions only by consensus. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has personally reached out to 48 heads of government in the NSG during the last two years making a case for India. He plans to visit Switzerland and Mexico who oppose India’s membership prior to a preparatory meeting of the NSG scheduled for June 9. India’s final and most important bid to win diplomatic backing will come during Modi’s three-day visit to the United States on 6 June. What helps India is its economic clout, its large market and the American support. What goes against it is that it has not signed the NPT. Pakistan has applied for membership after India but has not worked hard for it. If India is given a concession, Pakistan too expects to get it with Chinese support. To keep India out China demands signing NPT as a pre-condition for considering a country for membership.

It remains to be seen if the US has the ability to generate a consensus in favour of India. There is however a possibility of both India and Pakistan being denied membership. The group of so called “non-prolifertion hardliners” has in the past offered principled opposition to India’s membership of NSG. It remains to be seen, also, whether Modi’s personal diplomacy will make any difference this time.