Reality check for N league

Not looking good

 

That the Afghans are furious is old news. And nobody in Islamabad seemed bothered when they threw us out of the QCG. It’s also been clear for a while that the Americans are unhappy again

Nawaz will have some serious thinking to do as he recovers from the open heart surgery in London. He’s got little going for him; except that the opposition is just too broken down to push the ToRs through. The best he can do is delay the take-off of the investigation as much as possible. That’s where the opposition is looking a gift-horse in the mouth. PPP tried to slip one through but PTI failed to appreciate the gambit. Removing the PM’s name in return for getting the investigation started was not a bad move. N would have come under the microscope regardless.

Once an investigation does begin, though, it will not be too long before results start pouring in, and Nawaz realises this by now; hence the delaying tactics. But he will have more on his mind. There are bigger problems for Pakistan on the international, especially regional, front.

That the Afghans are furious is old news. And nobody in Islamabad seemed bothered when they threw us out of the QCG. It’s also been clear for a while that the Americans are unhappy again. Their demands, and their attitude, have stiffened. And it’s been a while since something good happened with India, save the brief moment when Modi came to Lahore.

But for the Indians, Iranians and Afghans to come together in a joint regional pact, leaving Pakistan out, takes things to a different level. And, from Islamabad’s point of view, the only thing worse than not having seen this coming is expressing surprise now that it has.

Should this have really caught Pakistan off guard? The Iranians were reaching out to Pakistan immediately after the sanctions – even as countries and companies from central Europe to the Americas were bee hiving to Tehran for contracts. Yet our response was lukewarm at best. Then, to make things worse, we kept leaning towards Riyadh even as the rest of the world was finally taking a clear position about Saudi Arabia and its proxy influence in the region. And then, to add insult to injury, we rubbed Kalbhoshan Yadev in the Iranian president’s face when he came to talk business.

And we practically wrote the book on keeping things confused in Afghanistan to the point that four countries got involved to broker peace – on the premise that we’d bring the Taliban – yet we remained ambiguous till the Quadrilateral ran out of juice. Even now there’s no clear sign of a complete detachment from the Afghan Taliban. When we finally admitted we housed them in Balochistan – so we could ‘exert influence’, of course – we said we’d arm twist them if necessary and throw them out if they didn’t comply. Then they didn’t comply. Then we did nothing, as usual. Even local experts who’d appreciated the turning of the tide with Zarb-e-Azb are left scratching their heads, wondering if we are really playing for a Taliban win in Afghanistan. And the less said about India the better, especially the trade route we resisted till they finally found an alternative.

If there were no CPEC, there’d be nothing to show on the foreign front. You won’t get many defenders now of the prime minister’s decision to keep the foreign ministry portfolio to himself. Poor Nawaz must fight off the Panama inquiry to stay alive at home, juggle US, India, Afghanistan and Iran on the foreign front, worry about the economy tanking and criticism coming with another budget, and undergo an open heart surgery at the same time.

But that is PML-N’s reality check. At home it is up to its neck in survival. There’s nothing else on prime time TV either. Even the Indian spy was rubbished to the dustbin of history rather quickly. Now, with senior members discussing ToRs and the kitchen cabinet working out justification for the money trail, there’s not much thought going into the development budget, for example. It doesn’t help the economy that Dar sb must also play prime minister while the prime minister recovers.

Iran, too, is a lost opportunity that will not be easily corrected. Tehran first came to Pakistan with Chabahar, but we had other things on our mind, and we had to appear politically correct for a faraway Arab kingdom for some reason

And outside, it’ll take a lot even for a little to change. The Afghans will not turn around till we get the Taliban to talk or finish them off. And as long as the Afghans are upset the Americans will shove more ‘do more’ down our throats. They’re already tying more aid to quantifiable actions against the Haqqanis, etc. And now they also want something done about Dr Afridi.

Iran, too, is a lost opportunity that will not be easily corrected. Tehran first came to Pakistan with Chabahar, but we had other things on our mind, and we had to appear politically correct for a faraway Arab kingdom for some reason. Making friends with these neighbours, and working for mutual progress, would not only have been good politics, but also good commerce, for Pakistan.

Pakistan already has among the slowest growth rates in the region. Its politics, meant to exert greater influence over the region, has done exactly the opposite, also harming precious trade opportunities with neighbours on almost all sides. And, worse, there is little sign of much thought going into a long-overdue change of course. So far the reality check does not bode well for PML-N or Pakistan.