Things to follow
Mullah Haibatullah Akhunzada, the third Taliban chief, is known for edicts justifying jihad against the US sponsored regime of President Ashraf Ghani. He has also provided doctrinal justification for terrorists acts. It can be safely predicted that he will oppose the moves for end of the Afghan insurgency through talks. Besides the ideological position he has taken, Haibatullah cannot confront Sirajuddin Haqqani, one of his two deputies, who heads the feared network responsible for a series of deadly bombings in Kabul. What is more during the last one year Haqqani has extended his influence in the Taliban network nominating Taliban governors in more than a dozen provinces. Being one of Mullah Akhtar Mansour’s two deputies, the new Taliban chief knows Mansour had once been a supporter of talks. He also knows Mansour had been visiting Pakistan and meeting the agencies’ officials. Even if Haibatullah is convinced of the need for talks he will have to strengthen his hold before he can take a controversial about turn.
The killing of Mullah Mansour has sent a grim message to Sairajuddin Haqqani. But such messages are not new to the Haqqani family. Pakistan’s establishment is now likely to come under increasing pressure to deliver Haqqani and take action against his network. Pakistan has already been told that it will have to forgo the promised eight F16s after the House of Representatives refused to sanction the subsidised sale of the aircraft. The House also blocked $450 million aid unless Pakistan does more to fight the Haqqanis. Pakistan still hopes Obama would veto the restrictions imposed by the House. It would be premature to predict if Pakistan would continue to defy if it finds Obama is unwilling to exercise the veto in its favour.
Mullah Akhtar Mansur would not have become the second Taliban chief without Pakistani agencies’ support. Once ensconced in the office, he cared little for Pakistan’s advice. Haibatullah was elected without Pakistan’s support. There is little hope of his paying heed to Pakistan’ views.
