The Afghan Taliban’s leadership council met on Sunday to start considering succession after a US drone strike in Pakistan targeted its commander, two Taliban sources told media, in the strongest sign yet the insurgency had accepted he was dead.
The strike targeting Mullah Akhtar Mansoor on Saturday was perhaps the most high-profile US incursion into Pakistan since the 2011 raid to kill al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and sparked a protest by Islamabad that its sovereignty had been violated.
If confirmed, Mansoor’s death could trigger a succession battle within a Taliban insurgency that has proven extremely resilient despite a decade and a half of US military deployments to Afghanistan.
The Taliban have not yet officially confirmed that Mansoor was killed and there were conflicting accounts on Sunday, with the Afghan government declaring him dead while Washington stopped just short of doing so.
“At this point, we’re not quite prepared to confirm that he was killed, though it appears likely,” US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson told “Fox News Sunday.”
The Taliban sources said that Sunday’s meeting of the Rahbari Shura, or leadership council, included discussion of possible successors, including guerrilla commander Sirajuddin Haqqani.
Haqqani, who has a $5 million US bounty on his head, would likely prove an even more implacable foe of Afghan government forces and their US allies.
He is widely seen by US and Afghan officials as the most dangerous warlord in the Taliban insurgency, responsible for the bloodiest attacks, including one last month in Kabul in which 64 people were killed.
“Based purely on matters of hierarchy, (Haqqani) would be the favourite to succeed Mansoor,” said Michael Kugelman, a senior associate at the Woodrow Wilson Institute think tank.
Read more: Afghanistan probes Mansour’s fate after deadly US drone attack
The Taliban were also considering Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar, a potential unifier because of his father’s name. Former Guantanamo detainee Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir and Mullah Sherin were also cited, the sources said.
Pakistani protests
The Saturday drone strike, which US officials said was authorised by President Barack Obama, showed the United States was prepared to go after the Taliban leadership in Pakistan, which the government in Kabul has repeatedly accused of sheltering the insurgents.
Pakistan protested on Sunday, saying the US government did not inform Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif beforehand.
“This is a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty,” Sharif told reporters in London, saying it was still unclear who was killed.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that Washington only notified Pakistan after the operation.
It was unclear how long Mansoor might have been inside Pakistan before the US strike. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry disclosed that a passport found at the site, bearing a different name, carried a valid Iranian visa.
It added that the purported passport holder was believed to have returned to Pakistan from Iran on Saturday, the day of the drone strike targeting Mansoor. Photos of the passport, bearing the name Wali Muhammad, showed a passing resemblance to some of the old photos available of Mansoor.
If it is confirmed that Mansoor had travelled to Iran before his death, it would raise new questions about the Taliban’s use of neighbouring territories, including Iran.
The drone strike underscored the belief among US commanders that the Taliban under Mansoor’s leadership had grown increasingly close to militant groups like al Qaeda, posing a direct threat to US security.
Mansoor had failed to win over rival factions within the Taliban after formally assuming the helm last year after the Taliban admitted Mullah Omar had been dead for more than two years.
US Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States had conducted a precision air strike that targeted Mansoor “in a remote area of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border”.
Mansoor posed a “continuing, imminent threat” to US personnel and Afghans, Kerry told a news conference while on a visit to Myanmar.
“If people want to stand in the way of peace and continue to threaten and kill and blow people up, we have no recourse but to respond and I think we responded appropriately,” Kerry said.
PEACE TALKS
Efforts to broker talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban had already stalled after a suicide attack in Kabul last month that prompted President Ashraf Ghani to prioritise military operations over negotiations.
But Ghani’s office said on Sunday the removal of Mansoor could open the door to talks and the Taliban members who wanted to end bloodshed should return from “alien soil” and join peace efforts.
US experts were less optimistic, cautioning against the idea that the shake-up would diminish the Taliban’s broader sense of strength, particularly given the uneven performance of US-backed Afghan forces last year and a pullback by Western troops.
Read more: Afghan Chief Executive Abdullah, Taliban confirm Mullah Mansour’s death
“The Taliban have made considerable progress in Helmand (province) and elsewhere, so it’s hard to see much incentive for them to start compromising now,” a US intelligence official said on condition of anonymity.
The new US commander in Afghanistan is reviewing strategy, including whether to request broader powers to target Taliban insurgents and whether to seek a halt in plans to reduce the number of US forces in Afghanistan.
One US government analyst said the Taliban were likely encouraged by the upcoming US presidential election.
“The Taliban, the Haqqanis, (Pakistani intelligence) and everyone else knows that … the election this fall isn’t going to bring in someone who wants to send more American troops to retake territory the Afghans are losing,” the analyst said.
