Long road to survival
Things ought to move quickly with the Panama inquiry now that most of the chips have fallen and some have formed a pattern. But they are not. There’s still no telling what form an eventual commission will take; or how long it will take to investigate; or whether the opposition can even stick together long enough to get the ball rolling, etc.
Nawaz, meantime, has busied himself by kicking off the next election campaign a year or so earlier than needed. That’s obviously the best the kitchen cabinet could come up with. That and delaying the buildup to the inquiry as much as possible at every step.
But how does that help? Prolonging the uncertainty hurts the government. And how is an early campaign going to do anything about Panama? It’s an outside hit. No manner of public goodwill will make it go away. If it turns out that the money that eventually bought those flats was suspect, no number of Orange Lines and Metro Busses will keep N in power.
A prime minister must always be up to scratch on the international front. This prime minister more than others because he also retains the foreign portfolio; and the two people that advise him spend most of the time making the other look bad
Strangely, though, that might be just why he’s doing it. True, paralysis is never good for the incumbent. But right now N’s entire politics is centred on survival. The ministries, the privileges, the contracts; everything goes if the kitchen cabinet fails to see this one through. And with the pressure mounting – not to mention the risk of being chucked off third time in a row – the priority, understandably, seems reaching the finish line above everything else. That explains the endless delaying tactics.
And, true, the mega projects can do nothing to hide old money trails, but might as well posture right in front of the people while delaying proceedings till the elections. Also, you never know when another Kakar moment can present itself. The early campaigning will be the last thing to hurt in case of a snap election.
Unfortunately for N, though, this strategy has a very soft underbelly. It stands, entirely, on dragging the inquiry till we are at least within sight of the election. If that doesn’t work, everything fails. And despite the opposition’s shenanigans, it seems to have finally stumbled upon questions that N will not be able to stonewall forever. PTI’s Faisalabad power-show was telling in this regard.
The family has simply contradicted each other one too many times, on practically all important matters. First Maryam didn’t have anything to do with anything offshore. Then she did. Then Hussain Nawaz was funded from back home. Then he was not Then they said they bought the flats in ’05. But it turned out it was ten years earlier. And that’s not the end of it.
Therefore, now it’s not just that N and the family has had huge sums stashed in offshore accounts. It’s not even that the prime minister never fully disclosed his assets, or that the money trail is still unexplained and seems very, very suspicious. All these things matter and will be very serious for the inquiry, of course. But now it is about the prime minister, and his family, lying to the nation, repeatedly, with a straight face. Worse, they refuse to accept that they messed up the narrative. And since they so obviously did, it is more likely that they have something to hide then the charge that the usual suspects are out to derail democracy again. Even PPP has realised that this particular line will not sell in this case.
Now, if N is unable to make this right – which is a big, big ask – the campaigning will not do much good either. ‘I lied to you, but here’s an Orange Line’ is not likely to do too well at any rally, especially when Imran’s charging bigger crowds with his I-told-you-so’s.
So, in his best case scenario N keeps the opposition divided and running after ToRs and judicial commissions, and the people pleased and occupied, and leverages the party apparatus come election time. And in his worst case scenario he is unable to explain the family’s many twisting statements, most of which are obviously made up, and is undone long before the inquiry can even begin its work.
The ministries, the privileges, the contracts; everything goes if the kitchen cabinet fails to see this one through. And with the pressure mounting – not to mention the risk of being chucked off third time in a row – the priority, understandably, seems reaching the finish line above everything else
With these thoughts occupying the party leaders, it must be difficult to give everyday things like governance much thought. Plus, building schools or hospitals, or initiating judicial or land reforms, is the last thing that comes to your mind when you are fighting for survival. What occupies senior ministers most these days, for example, becomes crystal clear every evening when they come to talk shows.
And even that is not all. A prime minister must always be up to scratch on the international front. This prime minister more than others because he also retains the foreign portfolio; and the two people that advise him spend most of the time making the other look bad. Now we have a situation where the equation with Afghanistan is breaking down – to the point that the QCG is effectively dead. The US is the unhappiest it’s been since the terror war began. The F16 rebuke is just one example. Things with India are in deep freeze again. Chine has begun expressing concerns about Pakistan lagging behind some deadlines. And Nawaz, up to his eyeballs in domestic politics, must also play foreign minister.
Some of these points must have been factored in when Nawaz okayed this strategy. So he must realise that he’s not exactly stacked the odds in his favour.
Still, it’s not as if he had a better option.
