Consumed by Panamagate

At the expense of policy

Those skeptics within the media and the chattering classes who always yearn for the traditional man on horseback to intervene are unhappy on the formation of a parliamentary committee to decide the TORs (terms of reference)

Issues revolving around Panamagate continue to consume the nation. Thankfully a stage has been set for the time being to slug it out in the parliament rather than on the streets where in any case it is virtually impossible to embark on dharnas in temperatures that are in the mid-40s Centigrade. 

But this does not mean that efforts to keep the political temperatures high have been abandoned either by the ruling party or the belligerent PTI. Sharif, before again decamping to his favourite foreign destination — London, for a planned medical checkup — has addressed staged public meetings and cut quite a few ribbons of new or old development projects.

The Khan is also hyperactive on the Jalsa trail. He addressed a gigantic public meeting last week in Bannu on the heels of the prime minister encroaching on his domain in KP. The PTI chief addressed another public meeting in Faisalabad on Friday.

Those skeptics within the media and the chattering classes who always yearn for the traditional man on horseback to intervene are unhappy on the formation of a parliamentary committee to decide the TORs (terms of reference). They contend, not entirely without justification, that these are birds of the same feather flocking together only for a cathartic ehtisab rather than the real one.

According to their wishful thinking, bordering on sheer naivety or deliberate opportunism (take your pick), only the army led ehtisab will do. Meer’s couplet amply sums up their plight:

Mir kiya sada hain , bemar huey jiss key sabbab

Ussi attar key londey say dawa laitey hain.

(Meer you are so naive to ask for a cure from the same person who is responsible for your ailment.)

Virtually all military interventions in the Islamic state have been staged ostensibly to root out corruption and send corrupt, effete and incompetent politicians packing. This has always been the stated reason.

The real reason has always been the Bonapartists and their civilian hanger-on’s lust for power. Ironically the corrupt practices inducted by dictators for the sake of self-perpetuation over the decades have created a new class of politicians and politics, the rump of PML-N inclusive.

Thankfully, unlike the situation during the PNA (Pakistan National Alliance) movement in 1977 when most of the then heavyweight opposition politicians, although engaged in negotiations with Prime Minister Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto, wanted him out come what may. Some of them were in cahoots with an ambitious COAS General Zia-ul Haq who had his own ideas of grandeur — ruling Pakistan in the name of a jaundiced version of Islam.

A stage might come where by dint of circumstances the military leadership may be forced to do some plain talking a la General Waheed

The situation albeit having some parallels is qualitatively different today. Firstly there is neither a popular agitation nor state oppression like during the PNA movement. Secondly, the military leadership, although watching the situation closely and also quietly nudging the government at the same time to resolve the Panamagate issue, is not in an overtly interventionist mode. And finally though Nawaz Sharif, by his imperious style of doing politics, has indirectly facilitated the opposition parties coalescing against him, most of the opposition ostensibly does not seem to have taste for a military intervention.

Luckily for Sharif there are cracks within the opposition ranks as well. The manner in which the leader of the opposition Syed Khursheed Shah staged a walk out immediately after the prime minister’s address in the parliament left a lot of PTI stalwarts baffled.

Zardari, having not yet uttered a word about Panamagate, is keeping his options open, they contend. Shah, it is felt, is only one of his rookies on the chessboard of politics. Bilawal Bhutto is making the right noises. He has the gumption to take on the Sharifs but perhaps not the authority as yet.

But this does not mean Sharif should stretch his luck too far. If the Panama leaks crisis keeps on festering it will hurt him even more. A stage might come where by dint of circumstances the military leadership may be forced to do some plain talking a la General Waheed, who as military chief in 1993 ‘advised’ prime mister Sharif to step down, paving way for fresh elections.

Thankfully for him, the prime minister still has the initiative. Judging from the PPP’s tentative policies and MQM’s clear break from the opposition ranks, the opposition despite PTI’s steadfastness on Panamagate probe has more than a few chinks in its armour. But thanks to the festering crisis consuming the nation the government’s authority seems to have been vastly compromised.

Take the issue of foreign policy. Notwithstanding the hype on CPEC, it is the COAS General Raheel Sharif who is doing the talking with the Chinese leadership not the prime minister. Similarly the Afghan leadership chose to contact the khaki Sharif over the crisis emanating from Pakistan building a 2400km fence on the Pak Afghan border.

Unfortunately Islamabad seems increasingly isolated in the region. Sharif, assiduously keeping the foreign affairs portfolio to himself with his two advisors on diplomacy pulling in different directions in the process, has not helped matters.

As things stand today, relations with India are perennially frayed. The improvement of relations with Afghanistan after President Ghani assuming power in Kabul has headed south since then, owing to mutual mistrust.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently visited Islamabad. The goodwill that should have ensued with post sanctions Iran was squandered away by an unfortunate controversy during the visit accusing Iran of harbouring RAW agents operating in Balochistan.

The quadrilateral talks on Afghanistan have also stalled owing to Islamabad’s failure to persuade the Afghan Taliban to come to the negotiating table. The US on the other hand remains adamant that Pakistan continues to harbour the Haqqani Network. It also wants Shakil Afridi, the incarcerated CIA operative, handed over to Washington.

The US House of Representatives only agreeing on conditional military aid for Pakistan while seeking an increase in restrictions on assistance is a setback. The House has expressed frustration over what it terms as Islamabad’s failure to crack down on the Haqqani Network. The supply of disputed F16s remains hostage to the same issue.

All this requires concerted and aggressive diplomacy on part of Islamabad. But unfortunately the political leadership mired in Panamagate is considerably weakened to take any meaningful initiative on its own.

In the meanwhile diplomacy has been left to the generals. This is a dangerous and unenviable position to be in.

The national budget is less than two weeks away. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, the point man of Sharif and virtual deputy prime minister, is busy negotiating with the opposition. With the government’s last full term budget more attention was required towards the budget making process.

Perhaps in the present scenario the budget will be another exercise in political concessions and lollipops. Hard and unpopular decisions like expanding the tax net to increase lagging revenues will be left for posterity.