The National Accounts Committee (NAC) on Friday assessed that the agriculture growth rate has nosedived to a 25-year low of negative 0.1 per cent during the current financial year (CFY), giving credence to desperate appeals by growers in the last one year urging the government to take notice of their plight.
The most pathetic performance of the agriculture sector in last two and a half decades, however, did not stop the GDP growth rate to reach 4.7 percent during CFY. This “most amazing” feat, according to the working paper of NAC, has been made possible due to the industrial growth of 6.8 per cent during the CFY as compared to the target of 6.4 per cent.
But the surprise did not stop here as the document further reveals that the growth of services sector, also managed to meet its target of 5.7 per cent for CFY. The meeting of the NAC was chaired by the Secretary Statistics Division. Officials of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics gave presentation on their collected data.
The government has set an ambitious agriculture growth target of 3.9 per cent for the CFY. The negative growth of agriculture sector was mainly attributed to the poor performance of the main crops. The production declined mainly to the crash of the commodity prices in the international markets. The cotton crop production declined by 28 per cent during the CFY. The production targets of corn and rice were missed. Wheat production increased by 1 per cent during CFY.
Industrial sector during July 2015 to March 2016 showed an increase of 6.8 per cent but production of crude oil decreased by 8.2 per cent. Major contributors are cement 10.4 per cent, fertilizer 16.3 per cent, automobiles 29.7 per cent and cooking oil 8.4 per cent. However production of pig iron, electric motors, tractors and chip board declined. The construction sector increased by 13.1 per cent during CFY.
During the CFY the wholesale and retail trade sector in the services sector grew at a rate of 4.5 per cent. It is dependent on the agriculture and industrial sectors output and imports. Transport storage and communication sector grew at a rate of 4.06 per cent. Finance and insurance sector increased by 7.8 per cent.
A statement of PBS said the 97th meeting of the National Accounts Committee meeting to review the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was held today in the Committee room of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The Secretary Statistics Division, chaired the meeting. Provisional estimates for the year 2015-16 for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) have been prepared on the basis of the latest data available for six to nine months and projected for the whole year. The estimates of 2013-14 and 2014-15 for GDP and GFCF presented before the last meeting of National Accounts Committee (NAC), held on May 18, 2015 at Islamabad, have been updated based on the latest available information and were also presented.
The provisional GDP estimate for the year 2015-16 has grown by 4.71 percent. The growth of the agricultural, industrial and services sectors is -0.19, 6.80 and 5.71%, respectively.
Agricultural Sector: The agriculture sector decreased by -0.19%. The growth of crops during 2015-16, is -6.25%. The production of cotton, rice and maize has decreased (-27.8%, -2.7%, and -0.4% respectively) whereas the production of wheat and sugarcane increased (1.6 and 4.2%). Livestock sector registered a normal growth of 3.63%.
Industrial Sector: The overall industrial sector has shown a healthy increase of 6.80%. The mining and quarrying sector increased by 6.80%. The main contributor is the group of 37 minerals, based on data given by the provincial mining departments. The production of crude oil decreased by 8.2%. The contribution of large scale manufacturing sector is based on QIM (from July 2015 to March 2016) which increased by 4.70%. Major contributors are cement (10.4%), fertilizer (16.3%), automobiles (29.7%), cooking oil (8.4%) etc. However production of pig iron, electric motors, tractors, chip board etc. decreased. Electricity and gas sub sector increased by 12.18%. The construction activity increased by 13.10%.
Services Sector: The overall services sector has shown growth of 5.71%. Wholesale and retail trade sector, grew at a rate of 4.57%. It is dependent on agriculture and industry sectors output as well as imports. Transport, storage and communication sector grew at a rate of 4.06%, Finance and insurance sector shows an overall increase of 7.84%. General government services grew by 11.13%, compared to the previous year’s revised growth of 4.82%. It is mainly driven by the increase in salaries and the inflation. Other private services also contributed positively.
The report is contrary to claims of PM, Finance Minister ( Dar Sb) and Minister for planning. The PM is on a spree of development claims during his public meetings these days. And what happened to the Kisaan packages in billions and billions of rupees ? Why are the Kissan sitting in front of the Punjab Assembly ? Not seven but have my own questions.
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