Worst of times
If Pakistan and India had developed the capability of learning from experience they would have abandoned the arms race long ago. Both continue to battle serious social issues that have been deprived of billions of dollars that were diverted to the security matrix instead over decades. As a result, seventy years after independence, neither has been able to effectively deal with poverty, slums, employment problems, etc. Both are nuclear powers, though, and give the highest importance to military superiority. And this rivalry, to be ahead of the curve in terms of deterrence at least, assumes an even more dangerous dimension when the political temperature is high.
That is precisely why India’s test firing of its indigenously developed Advanced Air Defence (AAD) supersonic interceptor missile, successful as it was, was still the wrong step at the wrong time. The backdrop is particularly revealing. The dialogue is suspended for the time being. To provoke military escalation now betrays a shrewdly calculated move on the chessboard. The Indians have been obsessed with this AAD since ’06 – this was the 12th time that it was test-fired. Again, going by convention, a countermeasure is likely
However, Pakistan must think long and hard about the posture it wants to take – especially since it is realigning long-held policy on a number of existential issues. Pakistan is a country with the worst kind of poverty and deprivation, a largely wasted lower- and middle-income working class, an educational and medical nightmare, and a broken down service delivery system. According to news reports it has the highest child mortality rate in the region. And the World Bank says that as many as 60 percent of Pakistani children are now born stunted. Now, since the country has achieved effective deterrence, it must no longer play the arms buildup games with India, especially since Delhi spends in excess of $50b on the military –world’s sixth largest military spender in ’15. We must instead, finally, begin diverting money where it is more urgently needed. Further deterrence does not need to be at the cost of basic development.