Just to survive, not run the country
With the opposition up in arms and the Panama noose tightening at home, and Afghanistan pulling the plug on the peace process, America again asking to ‘do more’, and things with India again in the freezer on the foreign front, who’d want to be Nawaz at this point? Well, for one, Nawaz would.
He’s not budging an inch. Actually, he did budge on the chief justice matter, but only an inch. Since then the kitchen cabinet has obviously agreed on the ingenious strategy of lettings things drag indefinitely. And, of course, no more budging.
But burying his head in the sand will not make the problems go away. First the home front. Panama came when N felt truly secure. Of course the civ-mil thing was compromised during the dharna. But that much was essential to stay alive. Plus it took the sting out of Imran in no time. And then there were the bye-elections and local body polls to boast. Letting the brass decide on security and foreign policy in return for a strong political footing is usual by Pakistani standards, after all.
But then, out of nowhere, came this Panama panic. N’s first mistake was bringing his son on TV. The son didn’t help by contradicting himself more than once in the few appearances. Then N didn’t realise that his not having a personal company was not the problem, it was the source of the money Hussain Nawaz started with in London that would eventually come under the microscope. And if the trail somehow led to him – this would be around the time of his fights for democracy from the 90s – saying bye bye to the PM house would be the least of his worries.
His second mistake was bringing himself on TV. He made an apology of a justification for being rich, which ended up sounding more like an apology itself. Surely nobody mentioned that in the huddle. Quite to the contrary, they would have cheered him along. That’s what happens when you surround yourself with yes men. That’s probably why he did it again, with the same result that very few people, if any, were impressed.
His third mistake was blaming it on the opposition; to the point of going into a reactionary frenzy and associating them with terrorists bent upon sabotaging his development initiatives. Nobody bought that, of course
His third mistake was blaming it on the opposition; to the point of going into a reactionary frenzy and associating them with terrorists bent upon sabotaging his development initiatives. Nobody bought that, of course.
Since then there’s been foot-dragging on ToRs, ambiguity about the chief justice, still no confirmation about the forensic audit and a very visible split in the opposition, but no quantifiable movement towards accountability. N’s best case scenario is this state persisting for the foreseeable future, at least. That gives him more time to unveil Sukkur highways, badmouth the opposition, and continue his premature election campaign. But that also puts him in permanent reaction mode. He survives, but that’s it. And that, unfortunately, will be the upper limit to his contribution to democracy for this cycle.
Now consider the foreign front. Kabul’s decision to exclude Islamabad from the peace process has had a very serious immediate spillover effect. It means Pakistan’s last leverage with the Afghanistan-America-Nato trio is gone. If we can’t deliver the Taliban to the talks, we have no more value; it’s as simple as that. And Ghani was patient even after the Mullah Omar disaster. To his credit, he waited as Pakistan wriggled around Mullah Mansour for confirmation. He even appreciated Islamabad finally coming clean about the sanctuary. But the Kabul attack, which they allegedly traced to the usual suspects, finally broke his resolve. It’s just no Pakistan from now on for him. Even a sudden yes from Mullah Mansour did not impress him.
Then, quickly enough, came another ‘do more’ from Washington. It’s serious enough to have bulldozed the F-16 deal. And it’s not just the Haqqanis they’re concerned this time. Sympathy for Dr Shakeel Afridi – of the Osama raid fame – apparently runs all the way up to the heaviest names in the US Congress. This particular relationship, therefore, is not about to get any rosier; not with the US election debate getting harsher with regard to Pakistan.
And India never goes away, of course. With Pathankot and Kalbhoshan episodes playing out their natural, expected courses, everybody knows this equation has further south to go before it is open to another shot in the arm.
The foreign part is made more difficult because Nawaz chose not to appoint a full time foreign minister. He’s never explained why and, strangely, very rarely have PML-N spokesmen ever been put this question on air. Also, for some reason, he’s seen no reason to revise the smart idea about the Aziz-Fatemi duo despite the way it’s worked out.
Juggling all these issues, all the time, must take an incredible toll on the prime minister. Sure, there’s a good chance he’ll survive this Panama uproar. Some say, in hushed voices, that should worse come to worst there’s a good chance of a couple of Saudi princes coming forward and saying they lent the money
Thank heavens for CPEC in this environment. Granted, it’s a game-changer, but tying it with PML-N vision misrepresents the facts a little. It’s not as if the Chinese would have opted for Chahbahar if any other party were in government. Also, Beijing is beginning to get unnerved about missed deadlines on our side. Let’s not forget that CPEC and associated projects would have to begin delivering returns soon, otherwise the debt liability would mount. And if the Chinese are concerned, N would be too. If they blow CPEC, nothing will give them a fourth round.
Juggling all these issues, all the time, must take an incredible toll on the prime minister. Sure, there’s a good chance he’ll survive this Panama uproar. Some say, in hushed voices, that should worse come to worst there’s a good chance of a couple of Saudi princes coming forward and saying they lent the money. And it’s not as if they haven’t lavished similar loads upon others; both in government and opposition. And, of course, it’s not as if they haven’t bestowed favours upon the government itself – sometimes with cheap oil, sometimes with free oil, sometimes by parking a billion odd in our central bank vault. That’s when this fizzles out, for all intents and purposes.
And, of course, we’ll ride out the foreign pressure like we’ve done all these years. We’ll continue fighting an enemy based in Afghanistan and they’ll keep fighting the Taliban based here. The US financial squeeze will hurt, but it’s not as if we haven’t been there before. Plus there’s always China to lubricate things. And India will remain in the freezer. That is its most natural state; and perhaps that’s where it belongs.
But, again, in all these circumstances N only survives, he does not thrive. Even if the third attempt is the one that goes all the way, he will be deflated, even demoralised, for its remainder. And, unfortunately, the only thing he can give the people is continuity of democracy by staying in office.