Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is having sleepless nights these days. Perhaps, the record third-time prime minister of the country is facing his life’s biggest challenge – not from any of his political opponents, but due to the recent leaks made in Panama Papers about the offshore companies owned by his children – Hussain, Hassan & Maryam.
Panama Papers is a 2.6 terabyte confidential leak that comprises of details of shady businesses of global elite families and politicians. The revelations are definitely a matter worth worrying about for Pakistan, as two of the country’s most powerful political families (Sharif & Bhutto-Zardari) have also been listed in the leak, among over 220 others. Both the families have ruled the country for over 30 years.
According to documents shared by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, Mossack Fonseca revealed that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his sons Hussain Nawaz and Hasan Nawaz, and daughter Mariam Nawaz set up at least four offshore companies in British Virgin Islands (BVI). These companies owned at least six upmarket properties overlooking London’s Hyde Park.
Sharif family mortgaged four of these properties to the Deutsche Bank (Suisse) SA for a loan of GBP 7 million and the Bank of Scotland part financed the purchase of two other apartments.
The leaks also claimed that Pakistan’s two-time Prime Minister and former Chairperson of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Benazir Bhutto – who was assassinated by Taliban in 2007-, was also among the clients of Mossack Fonseca (MF) along with her close aide Senator Rehman Malik and nephew Hassan Ali Jaffery.
The leak said that Bhutto paid huge bribes to then Iraqi government – led by President Saddam Hussain – in 2000 to win oil contracts for their Sharjah based company Petrofine FZC and later established a company named Petroline International Incorporation in British Virgin Islands in 2001.
Mossack Fonseca’s (MF) records suggest that Benazir Bhutto’s second company, Petroline International Incorporation, was refused to be accepted as client by the law firm for being a politically sensitive group.
In 2005, an investigation into United Nation’s oil-for-food program in Iraq revealed that Bhutto’s firm paid US$ 2 million to President Saddam Hussain and in return they earned oil contracts of worth US$115-145 million – though Benazir’s family strongly dismisses the charges and called it a political conspiracy against them. The icing on the cake was that the probe was led by former head of US federal reserves, Paul Volker. In the later year, 2006, Pakistan’s National Accountability Bureau (NAB) also claimed that Petrofine FZC was owned by Benazir Bhutto.
The revelations made in the Panama papers have been visibly frustrating for both the Sharifs as Benazir Bhutto is no more.
So Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has to bear the brunt and, of late, has been skillfully dodging the people of Pakistan and the state institutions about his shady businesses, offshore accounts and hidden assets overseas.
Sharifs who had lost almost all assets in early 1970s at hands of the then PPP Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s national policy, again rebuild their empire by misusing the country’s laws and with the help of the then military establishment who wanted to pitch any powerful politician against politically powerful Bhutto.
Sharif was then launched by military with pump & show and was fully assisted in building an empire, dodging institutions related to tax and others. This clandestine support from the establishment helped Sharif make billions without fear of state laws as powerful hands were protecting him.
However, in mid-90s when Sharif changed gears and turned against the same establishment, the filthy rich Nawaz Sharif started to shift his illicit wealth abroad. Mayfair flats were a part of the same era when Sharifs had set up two offshore companies Nescoll & Neilson. Later, the ownership of both the companies was shifted to Hussain Nawaz and Maryam (Safdar) Nawaz.
Following the allegations by Panama Papers and prior admissions by Hussain Nawaz of owning the offshore companies and Mayfair flats in London, and the conflicting statements by Hassan Nawaz and Maryam Nawaz, the Prime Minister has lost his moral authority to rule Pakistan. Hence, efforts are afoot by the ruling clique to spread a cobweb of lies and allegations being spread against those who are challenging the legitimacy of the ruling family.
Moreover, Maryam Nawaz is the worst victim of the Panama leaks as she had recently been launched by the prime minister as his political heir – a move which had virtually left Sharif family divided as Shahbaz Sharif is no longer defending his elder brother.
Per family sources, Nawaz Sharif had breached a family accord under which Shahbaz Sharif’s elder son, Hamza Shahbaz, was heir to the throne once Nawaz Sharif retires. However, the first lady, Kulsoom Nawaz, had been instrumental in getting her talented daughter, Maryam, launched in a bid to succeed her father. Since then, Maryam had been calling all the shots from a cell set up in the Prime Minister’s House. She has been attending all important meetings and most of the time her orders are taken as those of the Prime Minister’s.
But the Panama Papers is the worst thing to happen to the dreams of the elder Sharif.
Interestingly, this is for the first time in history that Nawaz Sharif is not facing a political challenge from any of his adversaries and rather skeletons in his own cupboard are out to haunt him. Neither the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) nor the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) has of yet been able to mobilize the public at large against Sharif Raaj till date. It is only the revelations made in Panama Papers which have posed toughest challenge for the premier and his family as his political adversaries are not fully united and lack commitment to pose any threat to his rule.
Rather, the actual threat for the prime minister is from State institutions as Sharif has lost the moral authority to govern the country. While Nawaz Sharif has lost his steam during the 2014 sit-in by his political opponent, Imran Khan, the recent revelations have made a symbolic ruler whose has been limited to his own palace.
Though PTI and PPP look at the same page today, as leaders of both the parties are asking the prime minister to form a judicial commission headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan with strong powers and conduct a forensic audit to track the money trail involved with the offshore companies and purchase of London properties, political sources claim that sooner than later the PPP would jump on the prime minister’s bandwagon.
Sources in the PPP suggest that the prime minister had been able to dodge the media and held a secret meeting with PPP chief Asif Zardari who would soon come to the rescue of the prime minister.
Mr Zardari faces a dilemma that he is facing a challenge on two fronts. He cannot go far with Imran Khan to demand an audit into the Panama Papers which also have revealed the offshore companies owned by his late spouse Benazir Bhutto and Rehman Malik jointly.
Rehman Malik has been involved in convincing Mr Zardari not to demand a probe into the leaks which ultimately may also result in a political catastrophe for the PPP chief and his son Bilawal.
Though almost every political activist in Pakistan knew well about the Sharif family’s tax evasion and hidden assets but no one could prove it due to lack of documentary evidence. Almost every second journalist in Islamabad and Lahore knew well about the Mayfair flats owned by Nawaz Sharif in early 1990s but due to lack of documentary evidence no one was in a position to prove it in a court of law.
The tight hold of the Sharifs over the Punjab province since 1980s in general and central Punjab in specific, the center of the country’s political and bureaucratic elite, had made it almost impossible for anyone to challenge the credentials of Nawaz Sharif and his family.
Almost everyone in the streets in Lahore knows that Sharif family was involved in tax evasion with the help of babus, but not one could establish it.
However, the Panama revelations have provided the desire evidence against Nawaz Sharif and his family members. But a major question still remains unanswered – who will bell the cat?
This question needs a thorough study of the situation developing after Panama leaks.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif enjoys a comfortable majority in the National Assembly where his party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has maximum numbers. The allies of the ruling party double the strength of the prime minister. Hence, there is no major challenge for the premier at least from the National Assembly.
However, situation in the Senate is quite different where the opposition parties have an edge over the ruling party. The PPP has maximum numbers in the Senate where its allies cement the hold of the opposition. But the ruling party can change the scenario anytime by summoning a joint session of the parliament as the ruling party has good numbers to outplay the opposition in a joint sitting of the parliament.
So, one may conclude that the premier has no immediate threat from the parliament in the near future. However, no one can rule out a rebellion within the ruling party as majority of the lawmakers are unhappy and rather angry with the premier for time and again avoiding them on national and domestic issues.
But it does not mean that the angry lawmakers may revolt against the premier, though one also cannot discard this possibility too. One may remember the recent rebellion by a close comrade of Nawaz Sharif, Sardar Zulfiqar Khosa who still is a member of the Senate from the ruling party. Khosa is striving to form a forward bloc within the ruling party and claims to have won support from several members of the parliament from South Punjab whose names he says would be shared on time ripe.
But domestic front is not worrying the premier at all. Mr Sharif has comrades in all branches of the bureaucracy – from judiciary to military. Once can wonder that judiciary is keeping mum over the Panama Papers like it never happened on this planet earth.
Media reports suggest that some former judges, led by Chief Justice (r) Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, are silently working for a favourable response for the prime minister from their peers in the top court.
The inaction by the top judges of the country over Panama revelations reflects the strong nexus between Sharifs and judiciary which has majority of judges from central and northern Punjab – the powerbase of Sharif family.
Even the inaction by judiciary against Lahore High Court judge Mr Justice Farrukh Irfan speaks volumes about how far brother judges can go to save their peer involved in offshore business. In another country, such a disgrace might have invoked a suo-motu action by the top court.
The military on the other hand is keeping itself to just sending symbolic messages to the prime minister. It seems that the chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, wants the premier to come clean on this offshore scandal. For this, not only the army’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), not only issued a public statement, offering to cleanse the country of all sorts of corruption but also made a suggestive move by taking punitive action against two senior generals and three other top-ranked officers under corruption charges.
However, since the military has no constitutional powers to go beyond its domain, the COAS would limit himself as he wants to remain within his defined parameters.
Moreover, the prime minister is working quietly on the chiefs of other two services – chief of air staff and the chief of naval staff, to ensure that the army chief remains within its limits. But the prime minister should not worry about the army or the judiciary.
The worrying sign, however, is that the prime minister is fast losing its appeal for the international community. Per his adversaries, Mr Sharif was brought into power for some very specific goals which he has failed to deliver. This failure is frustrating the allies of the premier.
The United States of America (USA) and the United Kingdom (UK) have already distanced from the prime minister. When Nawaz Sharif visited London for his checkup recently, not a single dignitary called on the premier as UK prime minister David Cameron is already facing the same challenge due to Panama leaks.
Prime Minister has also lost credibility for Saudi Arabia too. Iran, India and Afghanistan also have not released a single official statement in favour of the prime minister.
But the biggest shock came from Washington though. A recent statement by the spokesman of the US state department, John Kirby, hinted how fast Nawaz Sharif was losing support from the international community.
On April 15, the US State Department spokesman John Kirby told journalists that Pakistani people will have to decide whether the PM should resign over the allegations leveled against him in Panama leaks.
At a news briefing in Washington, the state department spokesperson’s statement came in response to a question whether the US would support the democratically elected prime minister of Pakistan, or would the US want to see the corrupt leaders go home in the wake of Panama Leaks.
“These are decisions that the Pakistani people have to make, and we’ve talked about this before”.
Clarifying that the US takes corruption “very seriously”, Kirby said, “But in terms of this particular case, I mean, these are decisions that the Pakistani people have to make.”
“Separate and distinct from that – and I’m not talking about this specific case – the Secretary (of State) has also been very clear about the dangers of corruption around the world and what that does to fuel extremism and to increase economic instability and the corrosive effect that it can have on entire societies. So corruption is something we obviously take very seriously,” Kirby added, sending ripples among the ruling family.
It seems as if Mr Nawaz Sharif has lost his “utility” for the US as all goods are being delivered by the army chief in the region, especially in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Mr Sharif has also failed to deliver for his loved partner, Narendra Modi, and Indian establishment is much concerned for the ruling family. But Modi government can’t do much to save Mr Sharif.
Saudi Monarch has already been left high and dry by Mr Nawaz Sharif as military refused successive pledges made by the prime minister as well as by Saudi King to jump into the Gulf quagmire and join the fray in Syria and Yemen.
So Mr Nawaz Sharif is a mere lame duck for the international players, with no one interested in saving him from the Panama fire.
As the opposition parties are planning to hold public rallies against the prime minister, the upcoming months of June and July would be crucial for Mr Sharif. With the rise in the Celsius, public anger is set to augment too due to long hours of load shedding and rising petroleum prices.
The question being ask