No one’s winning
Panama leaks have acted as a catalytic agent. Leaving aside their customary donnybrooks for the time being, five political parties are gravitating towards a uniform response to the Terms of Reference (TORs) announced by the government. There is a likelihood of the PPP, PTI, PMLQ, MQM and Jamaat-e-Islami joining hands to gang up on the ruling PMLN. They are expected to meet on May 2 to jointly formulate a new set of TORs.
The PMLN enjoys majority in National Assembly. What is more, none of its erstwhile allies (that comprise of JUIF, National Party and PKMAP) have broken ranks with it. This encourages the PMLN to take a firm stand on its position. The opposition is still willing to sit together with the government to jointly formulate the TORs. What stands in the way is the government’s determination to shield the Prime Minister’s scions at all cost. There is a perception, that in case of the focus being on the dealings of the PM’s children, the trail is likely to lead to the Prime Minster House. The idea behind the TORs proposed by the government is to stop this from happening by diffusing the focus through heaps of additional – extraneous issues thus requiring the judicial commission to look for a needle in a haystack.
A number of parties in the opposition want Nawaz Sharif to either resign or nominate someone else from PMLN to act as PM during the probe. The minus-one-formula however is as much of an anathema for the PMLN as it would be for the MQM, PPP or PTI. The PMLN might decide to go for mid-term election rather than accept the demand or face the threat of an agitation. Nawaz Sharif’s ongoing campaign of rallies with emphasis on the government’s performance and announcement of more public utility schemes amounts to preparations for mid-term polls. Mid-term polls might however have surprises for both sides – just as it happened in 1977. Both the government and the opposition need to avoid playing the Russian roulette.
