No holy cows

Not even the generals

Somebody in Pakistan has finally led by example. And it is none other than the COAS general Raheel Sharif. Eight army officers including two generals being fired for corruption is a first for the Pak army as well as for Pakistan.

A day before the news about operation clean up of the barracks, in a speech the military chief had underscored the need for across the board accountability, directly linking corruption to terrorism. Although the PR wing of the army, the ISPR (inter services public   relations) did not make a formal announcement about the action against the khakis by the khakis, the message is loud and clear: the military means business in the wake of Panama leaks.

Obviously the COAS has, implicitly, put Prime Minister Sharif on notice. He has no option but to write to the CJP to form a commission to probe those including his progenies named in the Panama papers for having off shore companies and owning properties abroad.

No matter how his supporters and detractors interpret the Panama leaks: the emperor has no clothes.

The prime minister has already announced his decision to write to the CJP for formation of such a commission. It is a welcome sign that he has also pledged that if the commission ruled against him he will forthwith resign.

He sounded almost defiant when, during the speech, he claimed that he was only answerable to Allah. Nonetheless he should not lose sight of the fact that he is also answerable to the people and the parliament that elected him as prime minister.

Sharif had announced after Panama leaks that a probe commission headed by a retired judge would be formed.  In the wake of across the board opposition to such a white wash of a commission the idea was universally rejected.

If the prime minister had surmised that the fallout from the Panamagate would somehow die down with the passage of time, he was sadly mistaken.

Perhaps the strategy devised by the Sharif camp that offense is the best defence miserably failed. Mudslinging on the PTI chief bringing into question finances of his cancer hospital was a non starter. Similarly a demonstration by PML-N rent a crowd in front of Khan’s former wife Jemmima Goldsmith was in sheer poor taste.

If the prime minister had surmised that the fallout from the Panamagate would somehow die down with the passage of time, he was sadly mistaken. Instead of catching the bull by the horns he decided to perhaps weather the storm.

When the news of the leaks broke he conveniently ensconced himself in his sprawling Raiwind estate for a few days. Then on the pretext of a medical emergency he proceeded to his favourite haunt: London.

Unlike the military that has mastered the art of optics under its able ISPR chief lt. general Asim Saleem Bajwa through tweets, careful leaks and pressers the performance of the civilian PR machine is hopelessly inadequate.

Where does the prime minister choose to address the media on reaching London? Right in front of the – controversially purchased – Mayfair apartments.

And where does the ailing Sharif prefers to shop and be seen on social media shopping? Photographs of him looking at Rolex watches in a showroom on Bond Street along with his son or getting a suit stitched at the expensive and exclusive Seville Row went viral on the social media.

It seems the prime minister does not live in Pakistan but another planet. He still naively assumes the opposition led by Imran Khan has orchestrated the whole storm over Panamagate and by ‘those who do not want Pakistan to prosper under his able leadership’.

Contrary to the popular perception that the co chairperson Asif Ali Zardari guided by his sheer self interest will come to the Sharifs’ rescue, the PPP seems to be in no mood to bail Sharif out a la 2014 dharna. In fact Zardari chose not to stay at his usual address in London (the Churchill Hotel) perhaps just to avoid him.  Neither did he send flowers, or call Sharif to inquire about his health.

Zardari feels that Sharif ruthlessly used him during the dharna, later to abandon him to fend for himself. The manner in which his close associate Dr. Asim Hussain who remains incarcerated since August last year has been treated is still etched fresh in his mind.

It is a fact that Sharif has not lifted a finger either to lend a helping hand ton Asim or Zardari who is in self imposed exile since June last year. In any case with the military’s ingress so pronounced and strong, perhaps the civilian government is helpless in the matter.

As a result of Panamagate erstwhile sworn enemies the PTI and the PPP have drawn closer to the extent that Zardari has been quoted as saying that unlike Sharif at least Imran has not stabbed him in the back.

Figures released by the ECP (Election Commission of Pakistan) regarding the assets of MNAs has not furthered Sharif’s case either. The prime minister and his spouse own – within Pakistan – assets of over Rs. 2 billion, an increase of a billion rupees in just four year thanks to large infusions from his sons abroad.

According to the ECP figures Imran is no pauper either. He possesses assets including his Bani Gala estate gifted to him of just over one billion.

It is yet to be seen whether the CJP agrees to head the probe commission or appoints another judge to do so. Or in case of the apex court’s refusal perhaps a parliamentary commission will have to be formed.

Nonetheless Sharif’s options are not limitless. No matter how his supporters and detractors interpret the Panama leaks: the emperor has no clothes.

The best Sharif can do is to give his blessings to a credible judicial or parliamentary commission with iron clad TORs (terms of reference) and hope for the best. Nawaz Sharif has been prime minister thrice while the Sharifs jointly have ruled Punjab for almost 35 years. All good things must come to an end.

Sharif can call the parliamentary party meeting of his party and step down in favour of another candidate for minister within his party. Notwithstanding reported disagreements within the party, Shahbaz Sharif is the best candidate to succeed him if it has to be a Sharif.

So far as ‘samdhi’ and virtual deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and heir apparent Maryam Nawaz are concerned, it is too late for them to fly. Notwithstanding Dar’s claims about his impeccable financial integrity, his sons’ vast business interests in Dubai will continue to cast a shadow on him. Similarly, Maryam, a fine and capable lady is too young, and also tainted as being a beneficiary of the off shore companies owned by the Sharif sons.

Of course Nawaz Sharif could decide to dissolve the assembly and call for fresh elections. But this really is not an option.  With Panamagate still the burning issue the ECP might not even validate his nomination papers.

No one including the military wants the democratic system to be wound up. But it is up to the politicians to save it by not squabbling and coming to a consensual arrangement on across the board accountability.

Naturally accountability has never been a priority for our elected   representatives.  That is why what was decided between Benazir Bhutto Shaheed and Nawaz Sharif in London in the COD (charter for democracy) in 2006 to form an across the board consensual accountability mechanism never saw the light of day. A parliamentary committee formed to devise such a body remains dormant despite a lapse of eight years, ever since the advent of ‘true democracy’.

If nothing happens, perhaps a General Waheed Kaakar moment will arrive? In 1993 the COAS drove down to the Prime Minister house and gave Sharif an offer he could not refuse. He asked him to step down owing to unabated squabbling with a meddlesome president Ghulam Ishaq Khan. Sharif – after initial dithering – agreed, provided GIK also resigned, which he did.

Hopefully General Raheel Sharif will not have to drive down to the Prime Minister house to give a similar ultimatum to the prime minster to step down. Expectantly, better sense will prevail.