Now or never?
It’s too soon to write off the Afghan peace process completely, but the trend on the ground is not encouraging, to say the least. And, for once, Islamabad’s lack of complete control over the Afghan Taliban has become a concern for all stakeholders. Pakistan’s journey from ‘do more’ to the lynchpin of the peace process owes principally to its supposed leverage over the Taliban. Things seemed fine till somebody spilled the beans about Mullah Omar’s death. And whatever hopes were raised by Islamabad finally admitting heavy Taliban presence in Pakistan – and giving them the ‘or else’ option in case of non-compliance – were dashed when the militia carried its momentum from last year into a new, spirited Spring Offensive.
According to reports, there is little pressure left for Pakistan to exert since most of the Taliban and their families have allegedly made their way back to Afghanistan. Still the warning, to abandon the Offensive or suffer serious consequences, is not exactly hollow. The Taliban have indeed enjoyed sanctuary here, and it’s not so easy to just wrap up and head across the Durand Line when the host is unhappy.
Eventually the Taliban must also calculate what exactly they have left to fight for. Granted, they have had momentum on their side these past two Offensives. But they know that the best they can do is take over a provincial capital or two – and hold it for a day or so – before melting back into the mountains. And come what may, they will never come near taking Kabul again. It is these facts that have made some of the factions that make the new Taliban appreciate the logic of Pakistan’s argument. The country that ‘kept them alive’ all this time is now helping them appreciate new realities. The Taliban may well survive the post-war period. But for that they will have to play ball according to the new rules. The peace in Afghanistan may not yet be lost, but there won’t be too many opportunities if this one is allowed to go begging.
