Somethings explain themselves
There is no need to spoil one’s sleep over fears of the system collapsing due to an imminent political clash caused by Panama leaks
The initial fall out of the Panama leaks in Pakistan has been significant. Two years hence the country is going to have its next general elections. The PMLN was confident of winning the polls hands down in Punjab on the basis of its development work and also make some headway in other provinces. The opposition was divided and lacked any important issue to put the government of the defensive. What is more the opposition was worried that in case the government succeeds in drastically reducing the load shedding, PMLN’s popularity graph would rise. Suddenly out of the blue the opposition has been provided with a burning issue that it can use to put the government on the mat.
The issue will continue to roil the government for weeks and months to come but it would be unrealistic to hope that it will lead to a government change. There is going to be no army coup to remove the government. The army is led by a professional COAS and is busy in dealing with the RAW conspiracies which Raheel Sharif has concluded are focused on disrupting the all important CPEC. The General has shown no inclination to disrupt the system. Conversely he has advised cooperation rather than confrontation between important stake holders. . Unlike 2014 when certain hawks among the corps commanders had a soft corner for PTI, the present team fully support the COAS’ point of view.
Mid-term elections are also ruled out. Keeping in view his past record, Nawaz Sharif should not be expected to yield on any demand for mid-term polls thus foregoing the gains he expects when development projects mature. What is more Imran Khan who is deprived of the support of most of the opposition parties is not in a position to force the government to hold early polls. The PPP has already shown it has no desire to take to the streets.
Khursheed Shah has withdrawn the demand for probe by the CJ assisted by a forensic experts’ team. He now wants a probe by a parliamentary body. This amounts to empower the political elite, involved knee deep in corruption, to judge their own cases. It seems funny to make a parliamentary body adjudicate cases of financial corruption. This is indefensible but this is how the high and mighty bale out one another. The proposal draws inspiration from the army’s stand that it possess a fool proof system of accountability and army personnel involved in such cases can be tried only by the army itself.
The MQM and JUIF having a visceral antipathy for Imran Khan will not join him in an enterprise that can only help PTI if it succeeds in overthrowing the government. The PTI rank and file lack the spirit they e possessed in 2014 to undertake another adventure. What is more the party leadership stands divided with some unwilling to initiate another costly and prolonged confrontation in months to come. A lengthy sit-in during what is widely predicted to be an extra hot summer might not be possible.
Despite the recent display of his customary fireworks Tahirul Qadri will be hesitant this time to put the lives of his activists in jeopardy at a time when none in the establishment is willing to encourage adventurism.
The PMLN is willing to negotiate. The party has tasked its leaders to meet specified opposition personalities to plead its case . Ch Nisar who was to talk to Imran Khan has already exchanged smiles and greetings with the PTI chief who claims he has been permitted to hold the party’s foundation day celebrations in at F-9 Park in Islamabad. Ishaq Dar is to hold talks with the PPP leadership and Abdul Qadir Baloch and Mushadiluula to call on Shujaat and Farooq Sattar.,
But is the PMLN also willing to accept the demand for forensic audit by a reputable firm?
An impenetrable veil of secrecy hangs around the offshore shell companies. It is normally an uphill task to locate who is the real owner. The task has however been made easy by the confessions of Hussain Nawaz who has named the companies owned by him through which he has conducted his business. To find whether the initial capital for investments in UK was really raised from the sale of the family’s steel mill in Saudi Arabia might thus be easy. But unless the Saudi government cooperates with the forensic auditing it may not be easy to trace where the funds to set up the steel mill had come from.
If no alternative is left and there is unending pressure from the entire opposition to resolve the matter through forensic audit Nawaz Sharif might also agree to the demand.
But what about the ownership of the Mayfair Flats in London? Ch Nisar has claimed these are owned by Nawaz Sharif. If the issue is raised in the court, the lawyers will have to argue if Ch Nisar’s evidence is enough to prove the ownership. Once this is done, Nawaz Sharif will be required to explain two things. First, why did he fail to mention the property in his statement of assets submitted to the Election Commission. Second, why did he fail to pay taxes on the money that was transferred for the purchase of the property . if Khursheed Shah’s proposal to let a parliamentary body probe the issue is accepted, Nawaz Sharif is sure to be declared clean
One of the off shoots of the present situation Is the issue of the political inheritance in the PMLN. There were already rumours that Nawaz Sharif wants his daughter to inherit his political mantle. This was corroborated by the informal arrangements made by the Prime Minister before proceeding to UK for medical treatment. Maryam Safdar was to assist Isahaq Dar who is to take the country’s charge in the absence of the Prime Minister. Maryam had come prepared to attend the first meeting called by Dar where she talked authoritatively on all issues and criticised the party for not sufficiently defending the Sharif family.
It remains to be seen if she is acceptable to the rest of the family. Her first tweet says the family is united. The sceptics think it is divided on the issue of the political inheritance.