Panama Papers and Pakistan

Long and short-term implications

Despite the terrible hue and cry that was raised after the Panama leaks, the reaction of political parties has been conspicuous by a stark difference in its expression. The ways they want this issue is to be addressed are also different. But, it had to be.

Besides this, there are also some other unintended negative implications that Panama Papers have caused in its wake to the political process of this country. These effects are both short and long-term.

First among the short-term is wide-spread political turmoil. This may be short-lived but a turmoil it is nonetheless which will leave some deep imprints on the political system. The most immediate drawback that it has caused is the deepening of the cleavage that already existed among the political forces of the country. As one can see it, it is again PTI vs. the rest in a renewed form. While the PTI wants to sort the matter out on the streets (threatening, in effect, to lay siege to the Sharifs’ Raiwind residence) if its demands regarding the investigation of the matter were not met, PPP and other major political parties have apparently opted to address it through parliament – by which, many believe, the ‘corrupt political leaders’ desire it to die a slow death.

This is being feared because we have a long history of throwing immensely important national matters into the dustbin of history by way of formation of commissions and/or adopting such other methods. Secondly, politicians as a whole are considered one and the same and a non-violent or aggressive approach is generally translated as muk-muka between them to save each other and one’s own skin.

So now, as usual, PTI is seen flexing its muscles for another round of agitation. However, chances are that it may not materialize as PTI is currently faced with serious kind of internal fissures. Also, keeping in mind the previous dharna experience, Imran Khan may try to have his demands accepted without resorting to old methods that didn’t achieve its objectives and which damaged the party as a whole. But, you never know the Khan and the mysterious ways he arrives at his decisions.

But leaving aside PTI, Panama leaks have also weakened both the PML (N) vis-à-vis PPP and the military establishment. And both of them have some important issues pending with it to sort out for the past some time. No wonder one sees a seemingly subdued reaction from the PPP; and the army always remains silent in such political crises.

PPP has long wished Nawaz Sharif to stand by its side or, at least, save it from the wrath of the Rangers in Karachi/Sindh – which he didn’t; while the Army wanted to enter Punjab which PML (N) was so jealously guarding. Both of them, particularly the military establishment, are now ideally placed to push him to the wall and try to sort the matters out with his government. But as they say, you cannot have the cake and eat it too; Nawaz Sharif is faced with a complex situation in which he can’t have it three ways.

The attack will be three-pronged which will take the wind out of his sails. If he accepts PTI’s demands, it may bring undesired results to his financial empire – affecting him negatively politically. As for making any concessions to PPP in Sindh, it needs no ingenuity to say that such a ‘stupid’ eventuality will place Nawaz Sharif at daggers drawn with the army. But worse than that will be succumbing to the establishment in Punjab as it will tantamount to the beginning of the end of Sharif family’s unchallenged sway over there. And that, of course, is something which he can ill afford.

So, wouldn’t it make you ill if you were you Nawaz Sharif and faced with the predicament that he faced with today? Yes, you certainly would. But as women are too complex for men to understand, likewise these politico-businessmen are too good for us masses to guess the machinations they employ for their survival; after all Pakistan politics is the story of a unique evolution in which only the fittest, most adaptive, most timid and most cunning can survive.

So, will it be of any surprise if Nawaz Sharif’s leaving for London, in the end, turns out to be what (then) President Zardari did in January, 2012 (landing in a Dubai hospital amidst the Memogate crisis)? Is there some international intervention required? Are some matters relating to offshore companies needed to be straightened out? Is it to allow him to make some contacts without being overheard somewhere? Or has a realization taken place in the Politician Nawaz that no matter how much turf you surrender to the army, you have to go back to your own tribe if you wish to survive? So, will he talk to Zardari to evolve a joint future strategy? Well, your guess is as good as mine!

Jumping to conclusions isn’t a good thing. It’s better wait and see. He might be actually sick, after all.

But whatever it is and what damage control exercise is undertaken, Panama Papers have inflicted some hard blows to the current democratic dispensation in the country with long-term political implications. It goes without saying that the credibility of political parties and political leaders has suffered a serious setback, thereby, further eroding the legitimacy of democracy – as a governing system. It has helped in the ascendency of the military in the country’s politics and tilted the balance further in its favour in the prevailing asymmetric and ever-enigmatic civil-military relationship. Of course this can’t auger well for democratic growth in the country.

As for PML (N), it undoubtedly is in catch 22 situation, and faced with one of the most serious challenges it has faced so far. It may not be that the party will be dislodged from power in the near future as there are many factors which will not let such thing happen. But its popularity will suffer a serious setback in the whole country, including Punjab this time. On the other hand, if the party is left with no other option but to reach a compromise with the establishment and let the army do whatever it wants in the province, in terms of operation against ‘militants’, it will also result in loss of public support there which is its raison d’être in national politics. Not at any point in the past has it encountered the challenge of erosion of its popular support base as it is at the moment. And this needs very wise handling – which both the Sharif brothers are least expected to demonstrate.

What is theoretically and ideally best for the democratic system and all its related institutions and actors is irrelevant here. The question is what can be done and what not. In the face of eroded credibility, political forces are in a very bad shape at the moment with very limited space to maneuver in. Ideal is for the political forces to reach a decision of making themselves clean and to get united.

But can that happen any time soon? The answer is as clear as the utter bewilderment and anxiety writ large on the faces of iron brother since the possibility of a military operation in Punjab has started to become talk of the town.