Historic ally vs strategic partner

Where does Pakistan stand in KSA’s Look East policy towards India?

As the time of India’s PM Narendra Modi’s planned visit to KSA is nearing, some concerns bordering skepticism seem to be emerging in the official circles of Pakistan regarding the nature and outcome of the visit and future direction of relations not just between India and KSA but also between KSA and Pakistan.

It is important to keep a close eye on the ever changing political landscape and the subsequent evolving patterns. The geopolitical realities tend to change fast and the shifting of partnerships is a time old practiced norm of international politics. Friends can turn into adversaries any time and blood thirsty enemies can be shaking hands the next day depending on their rational choices and national interests. Soon after Narendra Modi took office as the Prime Minister in India, the initial phase of his premiership doesn’t reflect very warm relation with KSA, partially owing to his violent past tarnished by the genocide of Muslims in Gujarat, India. However, PM Modi has been pursuing enthusiastic foreign policy which shows a pattern of vigorous international visits to make India more relevant in the global politics and ultimately help it rise beyond a regional power status. This also kept the not-so-cordial KSA from completely foregoing its relations with India.

But now it is quite obvious that KSA and the Gulf states are actively seeking to engage and cooperate with India in politico-economic, security and diplomatic spheres. The predominant nature of their bilateral relations echoes a healthy economic partnership, and this is what PM Modi’s upcoming visit in April to KSA will focus on, along with the possibility of expanding counter-terror initiative. This growing economic orientation is further being bolstered by KSA’s “Look East” policy where India is specifically being given the central position. Recently India has even been termed as an important “strategic partner” by the Saudi Foreign Minister. Similarly, for India, KSA holds a major position in its “Think West” policy, not only for its oil-rich status but the fact that KSA exercises a natural supremacy over the Muslim world for hosting two holy cities and is revered worldwide, and it will give India an excellent opportunity to gain much larger presence and foothold in the West Asian region. For KSA, India offers the biggest market for its oil exports in South Asia. There is almost three million Indian labour force employed in KSA sending substantial revenue back home.

On the flipside, despite being traditional allies, Pakistan and KSA relations recently faced a minor glitch which even though lasted only briefly but cannot be overlooked while analysing KSA’s “Look East” policy, in which India features predominantly. The ongoing Yemen crisis and Pakistan’s neutral stance caused a slight ruffle in the bilateral relations which further got aggravated owing to the ambiguity regarding the status of Pakistan’s inclusion in the KSA-led 34 states’ coalition against terrorism. However, with Pakistan’s active participation in the North Thunder exercises last month, the equation has been substantially balanced.

All these instances point to an important fact that small temporary glitches cannot easily tarnish a long and time tested trusted relationship between KSA and Pakistan. It also reinforces the fact that Pakistan remains indispensible to KSA in its security calculus. After Pakistan’s adopted neutrality, for all the valid reasons, on Yemen crisis despite KSA’s request to join in the KSA-led Yemen intervention, Pakistan was once again asked to be part of 34-state coalition. The uncertainty on part of Pakistan didn’t bog KSA down and the North Thunder presented a new opportunity to Pakistan, to which it conceded. One can easily confer that the great level of understanding and acceptance of each other’s limitations is quite evident in these developments. This is also one of the reasons why the Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir in his recent statement expressed that “Pakistan is an historic ally and will remain to be so.”

Nevertheless, in the evolving scenario it seems both KSA and India have evaluated and realised their respective importance for each other. Some speculations doing the rounds have even proclaimed that India has effectively taken advantage of alleged cold patch in Pak-KSA relations and jumped into the temporary breach to win some place for itself. On the other hand, one can also sense an even-handed approach being adopted by the KSA and Gulf states towards India and Pakistan where they have openly expressed that relations with India will not come about at the expense of relations with Pakistan nor will they be imposing their decision in case of differences between Pakistan and India.

Although it is comforting to know that KSA is keeping a balanced approach and is quite vocal about it too, but the facts show that Pakistan will always take precedence over India for KSA. This is no wishful thinking but the mutual interdependency between the two has always been indispensible, to which history stands witness. A modest number of Pakistani troops are always stationed in KSA, a privilege that KSA is yet reluctant to offer to India despite calling it a strategic partner. Also the very choice of terms “ally” and “partner” points to the obvious that Pakistan is being seen as part of a long term relationship that is characterised by agreeing with each others’ values while “partnership” is a more narrowly defined relationship that indicates a specific bond around a particular project only. Pakistan also, on its part, while carefully avoiding to become part of Iranian or Saudi proxy, has always given security commitment to KSA. Warming up to India may not necessarily wean KSA away from Pakistan but for Pakistan it sure is important to stay watchful and redouble its diplomatic efforts with KSA and other Muslim states including Iran.