There is collective will now
The Brussels attack has raised questions that confront not just politicians but also academics and political scientists. It is the confirmation of the newest extension in the war against terrorism – its active, sudden and piercing entry into Europe.
The Americans were already bombing IS at the time of the Paris attack, along with a number of other countries. Then the French joined in too, promising to end the terrorist organisation once and for all. But the Russians and the Iranians were also helping the Assad regime fight ISIS. The narrative, so to speak, was of a fight that was gradually being won.
Then, suddenly, came this new Europe chapter. And suddenly there is a new international crisis playing out. Despite the noose supposedly tightening around its neck, Da’ish has been able to impressively expand its scope of influence and operations. How, now, will the world react, especially Europe? And how will this new turn eventually, inevitably make life yet harder for millions of Muslims living peacefully across the west – the constant sufferers in this merciless war.
And what, if anything, will Muslim countries do? So far this war has kept some Muslim countries quite busy. A few practically bent over backwards trying to unseat the Assad regime. In the process, as is well known by now, they helped in no small manner fund and arm many of radical Islamist militias now littered across the Levant, including ISIS. Is it possible that changing ground reality will prompt a policy shift among them?
DNA talked to noted analyst and political scientist, and professor of political science at LUMS, Rasul Bakhsh Rais.
Question: Since ISIS has displayed a remarkable ability to strike seep inside Europe, does the Brussels attack mark a paradigm shift in the war against terrorism as we have known it so far?
Rasul Bakhsh Rais: Suffice to say that Europe, at least, has realised the magnitude of the problem by now. And there is a serious crisis confronting the European Union. The manner of its infiltration by ISIS is astonishing. Clearly it has been able to tap into already well known bitterness and estrangement in the impoverished Muslim communities in much of mainland Europe.
Now, understandably, there are sleeper cells with obviously well trained activists. They are able to transport bombs and weapons into high security areas. And most importantly they are able to strike terror quite successfully. This means the EU faces a big challenge when it comes to safeguarding its internal security.
But I still think this is a temporary problem. These attacks are damaging, of course, but they will not be able to damage European society. Such attacks cannot destroy states. And now the resolve to tackle this phenomenon will also strengthen. So, eventually, they will get a handle on it. Unfortunately, there will be a fierce reaction against Muslims though.
Q: It took Europe around a hundred years to move from constant infighting and war to the Schengen border system and common currency. The free border, at least, has now come under strain. Surely there will be stricter security at crossings, sort of undoing the process. Do you think EU has other practical choices?
RBR: Of course EU now faces immense security challenges. But I don’t see them compromising the free border regime. I do feel, however, that they will significantly increase their intelligence cooperation.
Despite the recent Paris attack, this one caught them unawares. It turns out that Turkey had already alerted Belgium about one of the attackers in advance, yet they were too relaxed to take any action. This is telling, to say the least.
Therefore, the first thing Europeans have to do is improve intel-sharing. They also have to take other, equally important steps. It will be very important, for example, to control extremist reaction against Muslims in the aftermath of the attacks. Such tendencies are precisely what ISIS and others feed off. They then sell the narrative that Europeans deprive Muslims of their basic rights.
This, in fact, has been the biggest driving force behind ISIS recruitments in EU. If European leaders fall into this trap, they would be foolish.
Question: What lessons should Pakistan draw from these twists and turns in the terror war? And how do you see the Da’ish phenomenon playing out?
RBR: Pakistan’s war against terrorism still has a long way to go. Terrorists have put us on the defensive and continue to paralyse Pakistan internally. We are still terribly isolated and our culture, heritage, tourism, etc, have also been affected by terrorism and militancy. We continue to be branded as a safe haven for terrorists.
Yet things are also changing. The perception is not always true. I’m in Peshawar right now, for example, and roaming through the city I do not find it any different from Lahore. It is as normal and as fearless as any other city. But everybody who knew I was coming asked me to be extra careful.
As for Da’ish, remember no one organisation has ever defeated a state. Granted, these are turbulent times, but insurgencies go in cycles. Consider the Sri Lankan uprising. Even with outside help, and even though it lasted a quarter of a century, it was ultimately crushed. Eventually, all such movements are defeated. So, too, will Da’ish be defeated. Now, crucially, there is the collective will that was missing before.
Q: Is there such a thing as a Muslim terrorist? And do you think this war will trigger some progressive change in Muslim countries as well?
RBR: Of course Muslim terrorists exist. Just like Hindus and Christians, if they turn to terrorism, will become terrorists. The same is true for Muslims that take this route. It is wrong, though, for them to associate their terrorism and jihad with Islam.
Muslim countries will, of course, also change. Iran, I believe, will be the first to change. It will come in the form of regime change. The progressive people must start making important decisions there.
There will be change in Saudi Arabia too. But it will be a different change. There it will come through a generational change in the monarchy. They seem to be reaching the understanding that supporting jihadi networks, etc, does not work in the modern world.
So the Muslim world will not escape change as far as the effects of this war are concerned.
