Afghan Taliban’s rejection

Ball again in Pakistan’s court

The Afghan Taliban’s apparent rejection of Pakistani pressure regarding the peace talks highlights the sensitive and unpredictable nature of the present arrangement. It was always going to be difficult to get the insurgents to talk, especially since their last Spring Offensive never ran out of gas. Surprisingly, their successes did not stop even for the usual winter lull. That realisation, most probably, led to Sartaj Aziz recently acknowledging senior Taliban presence in Pakistan and, of course, their vulnerability. The Taliban will talk, we told the world, otherwise we will simply turn them out.

The joke, if news reports are to be trusted, is back on the facilitators of these talks. The sanctuary is not that crucial anymore, it turns out, and Afghanistan is safe enough for them now that nato’s departure has defanged Kabul to a great extent. And that puts the spotlight back on Pakistan. The leverage and the acknowledgement, which seemed like such a good idea, are suddenly not working. Nor does immediately following through on the promise win anything for the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG). But since Pakistan raised the stakes (with the expulsion threat) only to meet a stiff counter threat, it must now take some sort of action.

There is no reason to host these commanders, of course, if they continue to be only a source of trouble. Unless they play ball, they must no longer be tolerated. Yet simply throwing them out will hardly solve the problem. Come spring, the fighting will pick up substantially, obviously drawing more of the west’s attention, if not hardware, as the situation worsens on the ground. And, of course, the occupation will prolong. The Taliban must once again be reminded, therefore, that come what may they will never ever come close to Kabul again. The best they can do is take over a few districts before they are wrestled back, and blood will continue to spill a while longer. So another round between Pakistan and the Taliban will most likely decide the future of the talks.