Breaking the ice?
Considering how the Pathankot fallout was pretty amicably handled by both sides – New Delhi not going overboard with the hysteria and Pakistan cooperating with the investigation – Sartaj Aziz and Sushma Swaraj were expected to further break the ice ahead of the two prime ministers’ likely meeting in the US shortly. Most observers equated that with something tangible coming out of the Nepal meeting; like a roadmap for putting foreign secretary level talks back on track, for example. But while not much concrete came out of the handshake, the rhetoric was encouraging, and the body language was pleasant.
Now all eyes will be on Nawaz and Modi if – it’s still not confirmed – they take some time out on the sidelines of the nuclear summit in America. It’s all well that Modi will come to Islamabad for the Saarc summit, but that is in November, and there’s no telling which way, or how far, the pendulum might have swung by then. And, as Sartaj and Sushma rightly noted, Pathankot derailed the peace process just as it was gathering momentum. To get it back on track, therefore, the foreign secretary talks and Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue should be restarted as soon as possible. The prime ministers have an opportune photo op on the 31st. Whether or not they green light substantive talks will reflect the level of political will in either camp.
Meanwhile both sides have agreed to press ahead where they can, which is a welcome sign. Pakistan’s Special Investigation Team (SIT) will visit Pathankot on the 27th, so there will be more to write home about soon. On top of the recent intelligence sharing and case registration, this adds to the goodwill and moves the process ahead. There are some negatives, however, that Delhi can easily remove to further improve the optics; like removing the bar on Pakistani diplomats from attending T20 World Cup matches, etc. However, eventually progress needs to be measurable. And the sooner the two sides bring quantifiable advances to the table, the better.
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