NA-153 by-polls: Cakewalk for PML-N but PTI may pull a surprise

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With the voter of Jalalpur Pirwala going to by-polls for the NA-153 constituency on Thursday, the Punjab government has almost ensured a cakewalk for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) candidate Rana Qasim Noon by engineering a “forced withdrawal” of heavyweight Deewan Ghulam Abbas Bukhari, the elder son of former MNA Deewan Ashiq Hussain Bukhari, for the contest.

In the 2013 general elections, Deewan Ashiq Bukhari of the PML-N had bagged 94, 298 votes while Noon, who contested on a Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) ticket, had got 88,593. Saeed Khurshid of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) could only bag 17,931 votes at the time.

The NA-153 is a traditional constituency of the Deewans who have won this seat repeatedly since decades. In 2002, the seat was won by Deewan Jaffer Hussain and by Deewan Ashiq Bukhari during the 2008 and 2013 elections. However, this time round, the Deewan family is virtually out of the election with the withdrawal of Deewan Abbas Bukhari from the race.

Apparently, there is no contest left as many believe Rana Qasim’s win to be a formality. Nevertheless, the younger generation is canvassing for PTI candidate Ghulam Abbas Khaki who may still pull a surprise on the ruling party.

Senior PTI leaders Jahangir Tareen and Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi have been canvassing vigorously for an “unimpressive and docile” Khakhi who lacks personal charm and charisma for the locals.

Moreover, another factor helping the PTI candidate is that the people of Jalalpur Pirwala look grossly unhappy with what they call the “arm-twisting” of the Deewan family by the Punjab government. They say that Deewan Abbas Bukhari was set to win the by-election despite disqualification of his father, Deewan Ashiq Bukhari, in a fake-degree case by the apex court last year.

Deewan Iqbal Bukhari, the elder brother of Deewan Ashiq Bukhari and an influential, who has been elected unopposed the tehsil chairman consecutively for 16 years, has recently joined the PTI. He is well regarded among the people of Jalalpur. His son Deewan Haider Abbas is also an active leader of the PTI.

Nevertheless, the PPP has fielded a weaker candidate Akram Kannu who could prove to be a minnow despite some support for the party in the area.

A formal survey of the constituency conducted by Pakistan Today reveals that the general public did not like the decision of Rana Qasim Noon to switch sides each time he contests elections. Some people also expressed angered over the ruling party’s pressure tactics to ensure Noon’s win.

“The Punjab government is misusing the state machinery to rig the elections. Deewan Abbas Bukhari, who was set to win the election, was picked up by plainclothesmen from Matotali area during his election campaign and was taken to Multan where he was pressured to withdraw. During the press conference, he was crying. This has made people of Jalalpur angry who have profound respect for the Deewans,” said Deewan Syed Mazhar Abbas while talking to Pakistan Today.

Asked whether there were witnesses of the incident, Mazhar said that around 250 people of the area were witness to this incident.

He said that “the DCO Multan recently summoned Lal Mohammad Joya, an influential landlord in the area and staunch supporter of the Deewan family, to his office in Multan. The following day, Joya announced to join the PML-N. This is blackmailing. Most of the supporters (of the Deewans) have decided to vote for the PTI candidate,” added Deewan Mazhar Abbas, asserting that these incidents had angered the locals who held the Deewan family in reverence.

He further said that “the PML-N’s South Punjab in-charge Chaudhry Saud Majeed had met with Lal Mohammad Joya and persuaded him to join the PML-N. Later, Saud Majid threatened Deewan Ashiq Bukhari and asked for withdraw of his son, yielding to the PML-N decision. Deewan has been promised the district nazim slot, but no one knows if this promise will be materialised.”

Khawaja Anis, a local political activist, said that Qasim Noon would have an easy sailing with around 60,000 votes followed by PTI’s Khaki and Akram Kannu of PPP.

“Jahangir Tareen is very actively canvassing for Khaki. He has got installed water purification plants in Matotli and Kotli Nijabat areas. His influence and charisma is making rounds in the area, making people think twice to vote for the PTI. Deewan Iqbal, Tahir Bodla and Shahid Langah, a cousin of MPA Mehdi Abbas Langah, are also working for the PTI candidate,” he added. Anis further said that Deewan Abbas Bukhari was set to win polls but Joya’s joining the PML-N had broken the backbone of the Deewan group.

Mairaj Qureshi, a civil society activist, said that although PTI’s popularity was increasing in the constituency, its candidate was not effective.

“Had the PTI fielded Deewan Ghulam Abbas Bukhari as its candidate, he would have won easily,” he said, adding that no transport was provided by Mr Khakhi for public rally addressed by PTI Chairman Imran Khan which was largely attended by the locals.

Meanwhile, Deewan Ghulam Abbas Bukhari’s withdrawal has left the Noon family in a very strong position in Shujaabad and Jalalpur Pirwala subdivisions while the opponent camp, the Syed and Deewan groups, have been put in a tight corner despite the fact that the three bigwig families are in the ruling PML-N.

Though the feudal class in South Punjab always sides with the ruling parties and the landlords keep switching sides during each election, the Deewan family has always stood by the PML-N in its difficult times, even during former General Pervez Musharraf’s regime. However, Punjab Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif decided to lure Rana Qasim Noon to the party to make sure that he did not join the PTI which had made the ruling party suffer due to the victories of Jahangir Tareen from the adjacent constituency of NA-154 Lodhran and two other constituencies from Multan.

Although all the influentials in the area are supporting PML-N candidate Qasim Noon, his joining the PML-N has affected his popularity.

His win would virtually bring about their decades-old undisputed political hold on the affairs of Jalalpur Pirwala. This would also serve as a political jolt for the group of MNA Syed Javed Ali Shah whose political rival – the Noon family – would make gains in Shujaabad and Jalalpur subdivisions, bringing a defeat to their influence in the area.