Agni-I and an arms race

Fine timing

Pakistan’s deterrence driven security spectrum mandates a minimum tit-for-tat, at least, with regard to India’s arms buildup. This compulsion has led to numerous Agni-Shaheen and Prithvi-Ghauri tests. And it was for this reason that Pakistan chose to be ‘sanctioned to the eyeballs’ instead of ‘exercising restraint’ – as the Clinton Administration put it then – and went ahead with the nuclear tests in ’98. Fine time, therefore, for the Indians to test fire Agni-I; the latest in their nuclear powered intermediate range ballistic missile series, capable of carrying nuclear as well as conventional loads up to 1,000kms.

The Modi government has been unpredictable at best about Pakistan. First it clearly distanced itself from a genuine peace offer from Islamabad. Then it went out of its way, especially in Dhaka, to strain the already delicate relationship. But then, when everybody had written off any meaningful progress in the present cycle, Modi came to Lahore and green-lighted the dialogue once again. Foreign secretary talks, which had finally been put in the cold storage, were also back on the table. And, incredibly, Delhi kept a level head after Pathankot, extracting unprecedented cooperation from Islamabad in the process.

Now, the Agni test can once again put a spanner in the works. As always, given the established security calculus, Pakistan is obligated to respond in kind. And once again time, resources and energy will be directed towards non-constructive avenues. It must be noted that Pakistan’s arms escalation is and has been reactionary in nature. India, on the other hand, has a far more aggressive and expansionist security posture. Given this divergence, it would be helpful if the two countries put fueling their hardware to a later date. It is necessary to reach a modicum of understanding on the way forward before indulging in more senseless arms races. The Indians have helped calm the waters recently. They must not undo their own, and our, efforts.