Turkey’s problems

And Turkey the problem

Turkey did not learn much from its friend Pakistan about blowback, unfortunately, when it comes to leveraging a porous border and fiddling in a proxy civil war. Already it is a very different country than the one that broke from its ‘zero problems with neighbours’ policy to take a stake in the Syrian war; the pro-Saudi position that demanded Assad’s ouster above anything else. Now, five years down the road, the war has clearly come to Turkey, its ties with NATO are strained, there is open diplomatic hostility with Russia, it has a Kurdish uprising on its hands, and its influence in Syria is all but finished. Assad, on the other hand, is the strongest he’s been in the war.

Things were much different, of course, when Erdogan decided to open his borders to arms supplies to the so called Free Syrian Army (FSA) – which has since disappeared. It has also become clear since that Ankara also turned a blind eye to first hundreds then thousands of al Qaeda, etc, fighters storming into Syria. Back then the Istanbul Stock Exchange was turning over a billion dollars a day, the lira was strong, and tourism revenue and hot money inflow made the bulk of Turkey’s ‘robust’ economy.

But then the bomb blasts started. Then the hot money started fleeing, then tourism started drying, and then the lira dipped. Now there is a weak economy, rising terrorism and an increasingly authoritarian president whose personal dislike of the Syrian regime, and stubborn disregard for changing ground reality, is in large part to blame for Turkey’s problems. People are realising just why the country has come from being the most admired and respected in the Muslim world to the point where it is falling on itself. That these problems stem not from Turkey’s own failings, but partaking in an ugly outside war, is also turning the situation into a local PR disaster. It’s not just that Turkey has problems. It’s that Turkey, especially its president, has become the problem.