The roar of Ra’ad Al Shamal

The largest military exercise

Three hundred and fifty thousand troops hailing from 21 countries have begun manoeuvers in northeastern Saudi Arabia, described by the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) as one of the world’s biggest military exercises in the war games titled as Ra’ad Al Shamal or Northern Thunder. The participants comprise soldiers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, as well as Pakistan, Malaysia, Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan and Sudan.

The three main goals of North Thunder are to protect the joint security of the Gulf, Arab and Islamic states, increase combat readiness and coordinate joint operations between participating forces.

The extensive war games commenced at the King Khaled Military City (KKMC) in Hafr Al-Batin involving ground, air and naval forces on February 14 and concluded on March 10, 2016. Ra’ad Al Shamal has been termed as the most extensive and elaborate military exercise of its kind in terms of the number of participating countries and wide array of military hardware, including 20,000 tanks, 2,450 fighter aircraft of various makes and models and 460 military helicopters, reflecting the quantitative and qualitative weapons the forces possess in their inventory.

Ra’ad Al Shamal also witnessed the involvement of an extensive range of artillery, armour, infantry, air defence systems, and naval platforms in a simulation to reflect the highest level of preparedness of the 21 participating countries.

The highly publicised war games entail extensive preparation to simulate a near realistic scenario of the threat facing the region. The Saudi-led 35-member alliance to combat terrorism came in the wake of the advent of Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) and Daesh (ISIL) in the Middle East, which present a clear and present danger to the area. Ra’ad Al Shamal sends a clear message that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and its allies are united in joining forces to face all challenges to preserve peace and stability in the region and the world at large. The war game is a clear manifestation of the earnest resolve of the allies to test their mettle in fighting the challenges. The main objective of the exercise is to demonstrate the high combat readiness of the participating armed forces and their readiness and ability to function successfully in joint operations.

It may be noteworthy that KSA is already leading a military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen and called for the formation of the 34-member military alliance in December 2015.

Pakistan’s participation in Ra’ad al Shamal and its contribution of troops and military hardware confirms its joining the 34-member military coalition. Being the most experienced armed force in combating terrorism, it also has a long history of military cooperation with most Arab countries. During the Gulf War 1991, when Saddam Hussain’s forces had invaded Kuwait and were knocking at the doors of KSA, Pakistan had contributed troops to participate in Operation Desert Storm. Its rich experience is being shared with its allies and is likely to add value to the military maneuver. Pakistan’s Prime Minister and Chief of Army Staff are visiting KSA to witness the war games as well as hold consultations with its allies in threat assessment and evolving a joint strategy to meet the challenge head on.

Critics point out that countries like Iran and Lebanon are missing from the 34-member military alliance. Some hawks have gone to the extent of opining that it may be a Shia vs Sunni alliance. Yet other revolutionary ideologies surmise that the forces amassed to participate in Ra’ad al Shamal are poised for an invasion of Syria.

They conjecture that if one were planning to gather forces for an invasion, this is precisely the methodology to be applied and the perfect cover for it. They even lay out a plan according to which the Saudi-led coalition forces will break out through western Iraq and into Syria from the south, and it is likely that Turkey will come in from the north. The doomsday forecasters would like us to believe that the goal of the allies would be to take out the Assad regime in Syria before Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could react. If the Russians and the Iranians decide to shoot back, it really could be the start of World War III.

The armchair pundits project that major Sunni nations wanted ISIS and the other Sunni insurgent groups to take down Assad. In the aftermath, Saudi Arabia and her allies intended to transform Syria into a full-blown Sunni nation. But then Russia, Iran and Hezbollah stepped forward to assist the Assad regime. Russian air support completely turned the tide of the war, and now the Sunni insurgents are on the brink of losing.

The soothsayers are partly correct that regime change in Syria has been the aim of the US and a number of Gulf countries. However, the analysts projecting a physical invasion of Syria by the Saudi-led coalition forget a major element — Pakistan. It was made abundantly clear by the government of Pakistan that it would not undertake any armed aggression against another Muslim country. Its strategic ties with KSA entail the defence of the Kingdom, safeguarding its territorial integrity and not support conflicts involving adventurism against its neighbours.

The ground realities in the Syrian conflict may be changing rapidly. The historic and strategically located city of Aleppo, situated close to the Turkish border was once the largest metropolis in Syria, and Sunni insurgents have controlled it since 2012. But now relentless Russian airstrikes have made it possible for Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah backed ground forces to surround the city, and it is about to fall back into the hands of the Syrian government.

Gulf politics would not like Assad’s rule to be prolonged but using a major military manoeuver like the Ra’ad al Shamal for playing politics is perhaps not on the cards and the protagonists would limit the war games to battle testing their operational concepts and draw military results and nothing more.