Handle with care
Things have begun moving quickly on the Indian front, especially with regard to the Pathankot inquiry. Investigations prior to the FIR failed to note a JeM link – despite Indian insistence – yet only days later Sartaj Aziz spoke of some phone numbers indeed being traced to JeM, leading to raids and arrests across Punjab. This inconsistency has not gone unnoticed in India, of course, even as Delhi has so far kept a level head. All eyes will now turn to the SIT (Special Investigation Team) due in India shortly. Along with the Pakistani connection, they must also uncover the logistical chain employed inside Indian territory – which is likely to include indigenous groups or elements.
Once both sides are satisfied with the evidence, it will be time for action. It is too soon to forget that the Americans have helped keep the two sides engaged throughout this crisis; and they will make sure their assurances of mutual sincerity are honoured. The rush of activity is no doubt meant to pave the way for the two prime ministers’ meeting in Washington in March. They will look good shaking hands before the world’s press, having just diffused a conspiracy to derail the peace process. But they have done this before.
Already Sharif and Modi have employed official machinery as well as personal charm to overcome obstacles to dialogue. But, as often enough in this long interaction, a few steps forward were followed by some steps back. Now, once again, we are at a make or break moment. If this Pathankot hiccup is overcome amicably, there is much to expect from the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue that will follow. But if this too is handled in the usual fashion, the two countries are not likely to come this close to serious negotiations anytime soon. It is important, therefore, to handle both the follow-up and fallout of the PMs’ meeting with care.