And challenges ahead
COAS Raheel Sharif was in Doha yesterday where the Taliban have been allowed to set up an office by the Qatari government. The visit was apparently linked with today’s quadrilateral talks in Kabul where the issue of the Taliban’s direct engagement with Afghan government tops the agenda. Last week, Gen Sharif had assured the new Afghan ambassador, when the later visited the GHQ, of his full support to the peace process.
The Afghan government wants the Taliban to cease attacks to facilitate the talks. The Taliban however happen to be a tough customer. Acting audaciously after the news of Mullah Omar’s death became public, the Taliban shocked the government in Kabul by occupying Kuduz for days, then stormed one district after another in Helmand province. The fact that the Taliban have established control over one-third of the country has made the network overconfident. Knowing that the US troops are to leave Kabul by an already set deadline, the Taliban plan to sit out the period while continuing their offensive in other parts of the country. To persuade the eel-like slippery militants to call off the offensive and return to the negotiating table would require a lot of pressure which needs to be exerted. There are other difficulties also that need to be surmounted.
Pakistan’s establishment will not tolerate any dispensation in Afghanistan which favours India at the expense of Pakistan. The Afghan government will have none of Pakistan’s proxies. What is more, some of the Afghan politicians and warlords oppose talks with the Taliban.
The strength of the peace process lies in the support given by the US and China. Despite their bitter rivalry in East Asia, particularly the South China Sea, they are currently united on ensuring peace in Afghanistan. The Taliban know that despite their successes in the battlefield neither of the two major powers will let them rule the roost in Kabul. Whether the members of the quadrilateral process have the wisdom, patience and flexibility to bring peace to the region, remains to be seen.
