Two steps forward
The Pathankot FIR turned out to be that piece of the puzzle that much of the rest hinged on, and it has left both sides with something to show. For Pakistan it is important to be seen playing ball. And the Report may have taken its sweet time coming, but the SIT (Special Investigation Team) will be in India shortly and foreign secretaries will also meet ahead of the two prime ministers’ face-to-face in Washington shortly afterwards. The ‘process’, therefore, has been salvaged.
The Indians, on the other hand (according to the press), have another reason to be happy. Apparently parts of the far-right in Delhi were so convinced that Islamabad would never go ahead with the FIR that they are taking it as a vindication, of sorts, of Modi’s controversial outreach. Therefore, not only are they continuing with the ‘engagement’, but also beating Congress over squeezing out of Pakistan what it could not. All that remains, of course, is for the prudence to continue. Pak-India history is littered with instances of sincere attempts at reconciliation easily and savagely sabotaged. Once, when Musharraf and Vajpayee met, there was the feeling that sometimes even the heads of state could only be spectators to the disruption.
Yet there is more to count on this time. For one thing, Washington has clearly pulled the right strings on both sides. And for another, and perhaps more importantly, the hidden hand of the two national security advisors was also present behind this push. Like before, their ‘constant contact’ has engineered a thaw leading to the two PMs sitting down together in otherwise awkward times. The importance of the Pathankot investigation, therefore, cannot be stressed enough. Hopefully the recent steps forward will not be followed by one back. The next key indicator will be the FS talks after the SIT visit.
