The Middle Eastern quagmire

How to deal with it?

Lately, the Middle Eastern region has been able to garner a lot of world attention where the KSA-Iran rivalry has become more obvious than ever before. It has always been considered important by the major powers owing to its abundant oil and gas resources. But the recent chain of events since last year has not only evoked worldwide responses, specifically from Russia and the US, but has also brought along direct implications for Pakistan.

For instance, the ongoing Yemen conflict presented Pakistan with some tough policy choices where it eventually decided to stay neutral. By opting impartiality, it had almost risked ruining its decades long understanding and trust that it shares with KSA. Nonetheless, with time it turned out to be the soundest diplomatic decision as it not only allowed Pakistan to pursue a balanced approach towards Iran and KSA but also helped it in safeguarding its own national security interests. However, in December last year, Pakistan had to deal with yet another surprise when a coalition of 34 Muslim states was formed by KSA to combat terrorism, with Pakistan’s name already on the list. This time after a brief period of deliberations and some initial reluctance, Pakistan finally conceded to the arrangement.

For Pakistan the story doesn’t just end here yet as January marked the hanging of Shiite religious scholar Sheikh Al Nimr in KSA, further making the Iranian-KSA relations to hit an all-time low. In a bid to keep the regional peace intact, Pakistani leadership played an instrumental role of a mediator by paying timely visits to both the sates. Even though the tensions between KSA and Iran kept on mounting, Pakistan’s conciliatory efforts have been widely acknowledged and appreciated. Similarly, last Sunday witnessed the gathering of 20 Arab and Muslim countries along with the Peninsula Shield (military wing of GCC) in the King Khalid military city of Hafr Al Batin, where the exercises are expected to continue till March 10. Once again Pakistan is participating.

These drills are creating a lot of hype for being the largest military exercises in the region’s history, engaging the triad of military, air and naval forces. The main aim behind this mega display of power and strength is to collectively deter a potential enemy action. However, in an interesting turn of events, only two days ago the Pakistani Adviser on Foreign Affairs Mr Sartaj Aziz has been reported as saying that no formal agreement has yet been signed with the KSA regarding the previously formulated Saudi led 34-nation anti-terror coalition as the agenda behind the coalition still awaits clarification from KSA. Pakistan is also hoping to discuss Iran, Iraq and Syria in the upcoming ministerial meeting with the Saudi counterparts as these states have clearly been missing in any of the aforementioned alliances.

Iran, on its part, has been quite vocal about resorting to aggressive retaliation against KSA if it sends anti-Assad forces to fight in Syria. Here one can notice that while KSA has been trying to loop Pakistan into regional politics by making it part of anti-terror coalition, the consequent security concerns of Iran provide a sufficient rationale for Pakistan to avoid an active involvement. At the same time, it clearly hints at the significance Pakistan carries for the regional players; however, the present political dynamics of the Middle Eastern region demand Pakistan to exercise utmost caution before it agrees to commit itself to any new engagement, especially when KSA’s intended purpose to send troops to Syria could aggravate into violent clash with Iran.

Concurrently, the Iranian nuclear deal has made it reemerge as a major regional player with massive attraction for global actors. While the deal opened up diplomatic and economic opportunities for Iran, it also helps one understand as to why KSA is bent upon displaying its military strength through coalitions and military drills. The ongoing fight against Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis and now the likely ground troops in Syria are the steps aimed at maintaining and exerting its influence in the region. Ultimately it has started to look like an extension of ongoing proxies between KSA and Iran against each other with only a slightly different war theatre.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, by refusing to be part of Yemen conflict last year, it was able to send out a clear message to both KSA and Iran that it doesn’t want to be dragged unnecessarily into the conflict that has sectarian undertones and could be a potential source of unrest back at home. The same policy needs to be continued today. While coalitions, military drills and exercises are indeed important to increase combat readiness and to identify weaknesses in the training and logistics framework but the provision of expertise, advice and training should not come at the cost of putting one’s own security to jeopardy.

Presently, the military stance of Pakistan is quite clear and is endorsed by the civil leadership too. It has time and again reiterated that Pakistan stands with KSA in case of any threat to its territorial integrity, which presently is not at stake. Otherwise, Pakistan may spare its troops only for peaceful purposes under the UN auspices.

Jumping into the Middle Eastern fray could very well be suicidal as Pakistan is already neck deep into its struggle against domestic terrorist elements. Pakistan can’t possibly fight a war on someone else’s behalf when it really needs to first set its own house right. It is also interesting to note that the war on terror is being single handedly fought by Pakistan for over a decade now and no Muslim state offered to from coalition or extended help. No doubt they assist Pakistan financially but this has also ended up into making Pakistan a proxy war theatre where more than 50,000 innocent people have been killed.

It is high time that Pakistan should learn some lessons from its past. The brunt of Afghan war, fought on behalf of the US back in late 1970s and 1980s are still being felt today in the form of extremism and militancy. Just for the sake of keeping good relations, Pakistan should not allow anyone to drag it into their personal troubles. Fixing others’ problems while allowing our domestic issues grow out of control will render any type of efforts against terrorism fruitless.