Saudi Arabia planning another Charge of the Light Brigade

Smart idea or a grave mistake?

Saudi Arabia is mulling a change of regime in Syria through invasion preferably by the recently formed Saudi-led alliance or failing that in partnership with Turkey. The adventure, if it is ever undertaken, is bound to end in disaster. The Saudi royalty fails to take into account the ground realities which have significantly changed over the last few months. These are three: a policy change in the middle east by the US, Russia’s entry in the civil war which has proved to be a game changer and a strengthened and confident Syrian army which is retrieving back the lost territory from the so called opposition which in fact comprises foreign sponsored terrorist networks.

Under Barrack Obama the old policy to isolate and target Iran has undergone a basic change. After the lifting of sanctions on Iran the US is seeking better relations with Tehran while European leaders have made a beeline to the capital city hoping to strike beneficial business bargains. The isolation of Iran is ending fast. Soon after the US developed working relations with Iran, the Saudis and the Turkish government should have noticed the sea change that was bound to take place in the region. Neither the Americans nor their western allies are feeling any more the urgency of removing the Bashar al-Assad regime. Realism demanded a re-appraisal of the Saudi policy in the Gulf leading to a dispensation characterised by ‘live and let live.’

Syria’s only crime was that it was Iran’s ally and was perceived a threat by Israel. This was the reason why the US and its European allies were keen to remove the Al-Assad regime. The talk about the Alawite regime’s high-handedness was sheer poppycock. It was pure hypocrisy to talk about Al-Assad regime’s harsh treatment of protestors by those who bolstered the Saudi royals and Gulf Sheikhs.

The sole achievement of the terrorist groups supported by al Qaeda, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the West in Syria during the last five years is the massacre of thousands of innocent citizens, destruction of the country’s thousands years old heritage, large scale displacements and migration of a big chunk of the population. The terrorist groups have however miserably failed to achieve their avowed goal. Bashar al-Assad remains in power because he enjoyed the support of a fairly large section of the Syrians who had learnt the right lesson from the military invasion of Iraq which led to the killings of tens of thousands of people, large scale devastation of the country and rise of ethnic and sectarian tensions. Bashar al-Assad has kept the multi-faith and multi-sect country united and peaceful albeit with an iron hand. The Syrians know that the Gulf Sheikhs and the Saudi king are no admirers of democracy and human rights. The Saudis particularly have acquired notoriety for committing the worst human rights violations, enforcement of primitive laws and confining half the population comprising women to their homes and persecuting the minorities.

The change in outlook led the US and its European allies not to strongly react to the Russian entry in the Syrian civil war in support of the regime. Russia’s entry meanwhile turned the tables on the terrorist networks like IS, al Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham.

The Russians have put up a stunning show of power with warships in the Mediterranean, fighter jets dominating skies in Northern Syria, and precision missiles targeting the terrorists’ arms and ammunition dumps. Russia has also inducted its crack commando units in the war zone. Russia’s intervention in Syria has sharply altered the military landscape, routing foreign-backed rebels from key areas in the north and giving Assad the upper hand. The capacity of the IS and other terrorist networks to launch attacks has been badly affected.

The induction of the S-400, one of Russia’s most modern air defence systems with an extraordinary reach, has forced Turkey to stop sending fighter planes to help the rebels inside Syria, From the airbase near Latakia the S-400’s surface-to-air missiles could strike targets in an arc that takes in much of Israel, the eastern Mediterranean (including Cyprus where British jets are based), and northwards to cover a large part of Turkey beyond the Syrian border.

What is equally important is that with Russia’s all important air support the Syrian army and air force have jumped into action.

The Allepo province is being cleansed of terrorists town after town by the Syrian army advancing under the cover of Russian Sukhoi warplanes. Hundreds of terrorists have crossed the border to Turkey after losing vast grounds and dozens of their friends in the Syrian army’s massive operations in Northern Aleppo province. The US officials admitted Washington could do nothing to protect its proxies on the ground.

Syrian Kurds under YPG are working hand in glove with the Syrian army. Kurdish fighters backed by Russian bombing raids have driven Syrian rebels from a former important military air base near the border with Turkey which served as a supply base for foreign supported terrorists. The battle hardened Syrian Kurds are expanding their foothold in the north bordering Turkey. The entry of terrorists from Turkey into Syria is now restricted.

This has made Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who had hoped to install a government of their choice in Syria, desperate and irrational. Both think the only way to secure Syria is to intervene in it militarily.

Any misadventure of the sort is bound to face serious obstacles, the foremost being a lack of support from the US.

A Turkish request for ground intervention in Syria was turned down by the US and its European allies. The Turkish move was aimed at preventing the collapse of rebels. Washington was naturally wary of being dragged into a conflict that has morphed into a global proxy war, involving many actors with conflicting interests.

Turkey’s subsequent push for a secure zone in Syria including the town of Azaz was similarly rebuffed. The proposal to establish a no-fly zone in Syria too was struck down.

With the US elections due in November there is little likelihood of a lame duck US President taking any controversial decision.

Foreign troops entering Syria will face strong opposition from Syrian armed forces and the battle-hardened Kurdish YPG. They will be heavily bombed by the Russians.

Turkey’s shelling of the YPG and regime forces early this week elicited protests from Damascus and Moscow. Meanwhile the UN Security Council expressed concern during a closed-door meeting on Tuesday over the shelling and called on Turkey to abide by international law, the council president Venezuela said.

“All members of the Security Council agreed to ask for Turkey to comply with international law,” Ramirez Carreno told reporters after the briefing. When asked if all 15 members expressed concern about Turkey’s action, he said “Yes.”

This indicates any military invasion of Syria will be resented by the international community.

Pakistan’s military having a better understanding of war needs to discourage the Saudis from committing the folly. Failing that it should dissociate itself from the planned Saudi adventure which is likely to turn into another Charge of the Light Brigade at the Battle of Balaclava during the Crimean War.