Pakistan and the Middle East conflict

Will we jump in?

A meeting of international coordination group, which was tasked to implement ceasefire in Syria, has been cancelled.

“There was no group meeting today,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, without citing any reason behind the cancellation of talks.

This marks another setback for long-ensuing peace process to stop the war that has killed more than 250,000 people and rendered millions homeless.

This came few days after officials from both sides confirmed that Saudi Arabia had sent its warplanes to an airbase in Turkey in a move that signifies preparation for sending ground troops into Syria.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said, “We have been saying in all meetings of the (anti-ISIS) coalition that there should be a comprehensive and outcome-oriented strategy. We have said if such a strategy is implemented, we, as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, can join a ground offensive.”

Although many experts are opining that there no actual chances of ground action in Syria, recent events suggest otherwise.

Saudi Defence Minister, Prince Mohammad bin Salman, presented an action plan at a summit organised by US-led coalition against ISIS.

US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter confirmed it later, saying: “First of all it was training of both the military and the police, forces on the ground enabling and accompanying partner force, the Saudi ground forces can do that. We talked about use of special forces.”

The move fetched immediate reaction from Iran as its Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warned Saudi Arabia against sending in troops to Syria.

“Those who are operating in Syria without the authority of the sovereign government in Syria are violating international law,” he said.

Majid Mahmood, a researcher at Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS), is of the view that there is conflict between the policies of US and Russia as for now.

“It is important for US and Russia to build pressure on the strong Syrian rebel groups so that they are forced to sit with the Assad regime and negotiate a power sharing agreement and undertake regional cease fire agreements as decided in the Geneva 3 conference,” he said.

Majid added that US and Russia also signalled in the Geneva 3 conference that those opposing the conference’s agenda would be dealt with militarily.

If matters go as far as they seem to be going, a Saudi ground incursion of Syria will affect the already volatile Middle East, which is muddled with growing sectarian tensions.

The implications of such a move will affect Pakistan as well due to Shi’a-Sunni being a sensitive issue. Pakistan’s stance on Syria has been a balanced once – which many feel it might be losing.

A few days back, Sartaj Aziz, forwarding a reply to the National Assembly on the matter, said Pakistan has welcomed the Saudi-led anti-ISIS coalition but not decided to join it yet. He further said that a meeting would be held soon to devise a mechanism for what role Pakistan could play and how.

Pakistan was ‘surprised’ about its inclusion in the alliance when it was announced last year in December. It was contradicted by Foreign Office spokesman Qazi Khalilullah, who denied that Pakistan was surprised.

“Yes, we are a part of it,” he said.

Despite Aziz’s statement of not being a part of anti-ISIS coalition, Pakistan on Monday confirmed to be a part of Saudi-led drills, terming ‘its close fraternal ties’ to be the reason. While this might sound normal and such exercises happened in the past as well but given the escalating situation in the Middle East, they look more meaningful than ever and Pakistan’s participation raises questions.

However, journalist and author Zahid Hussain is of a different opinion. He feels the Pakistan taking part in the military exercise in Saudi Arabia is not a big deal as we already have our trainers present there.

He adds: “One thing is clear that even if Saudi Arabia sends its troops to Syria for an on-ground operation, Pakistan will never commit its troops in Syria.”

When asked about the sectarian implications of such an attack in Pakistan, Hussain said, “I don’t think it will have any implications because clearly, Pakistan is not taking part in the conflict. Whatever Saudi Arabia does will also have no effect whatsoever on Pakistan since it’s involved in Syria for the past few years.”

A renowned analyst and academician, Dr Rifaat Hussain, wonders if it’s the government or the GHQ that is calling the shots. “Sartaj Aziz is sticking to both ends to avoid the public reaction because it seems that the army has taken the decision and Aziz is in no position to challenge that,” he said.

Pakistan had earlier said that it would resist any move to topple the government of Assad but Dr Rifaat feels its actions contradict earlier statements. “Although US and Russia agreed upon an interim setup in Syria, if Saudi Arabia still commits its troops and Pakistan takes part in the operation, it will have disastrous consequences for us,” he added.

While Majid Mahmood is hopeful that a political negotiation will be reached in Syria, he believes that If there is no progress on the political front with the Assad regime for power sharing, then it is likely that we will see this ‘Islamic coalition’ entering Syria from the Northern Turkish border which is held by ISIS.

He, too, remains confident that Pakistan will not be a part of the Saudi-led invasion, if that happens.

“Pakistani government’s stance on the Syrian issue is clear through its statements that it considers Bashar’s government as the legitimate authority in Syria and opposes any external efforts for regime change in Damascus,” he concluded.