Whose interests are served?
The Pakistani government has handled Saudi war pressure pretty well so far, despite awkward appearances. Islamabad wisely played the parliament card on the Yemen matter. Nawaz was able to save face personally with the Saudis by claiming helplessness before the ‘process’. But when Riyadh did not get the message, and included Pakistan in its coalition against terror, Islamabad took to a policy of ambiguity; saying one thing at one time and another at another, besides sending different feelers to different stakeholders in the war.
But the situation is now changing, requiring Pakistan to make its position known once and for all; not just to friends with serious expectations but also to the local population which harbours growing apprehensions about the course the country might take. With Russian help, the Syrian Arab Army has regained the initiative. And if it is able to retake Aleppo, which is likely, it will have cut off key ISIS supply routes; meaning Raqqa, then isolated, should not take long to fall also. But the Assad government’s upper hand has caused considerable grief in Riyadh and Ankara, and the two are seemingly preparing for a ground invasion of Syria.
Should such an event take place, a complex web of proxy and real wars will engulf Syria. They will pit KSA against Iran, Turkey against Russia, Kurds against ISIS, Turkey against Kurds, US against Russia, and what not. For Pakistan to have any position other than absolute neutrality would be disastrous. Presently we are seeing tilting rather visibly towards the Saudis. But that might mean alienating not just Iran, but also Russia and eventually China, with whom we are undertaking landmark projects. Unfortunately, the government does not seem aware of the importance of taking a solid stand at this point. It still seems waiting for modalities, etc, before finally committing. It should, instead, make clear to all parties in the war that Pakistan would rather prefer to sit this one out.