Pakistan’s dilemma
A few days ago, The Daily Telegraph published a report predicting how the world may look like a few years down the line. The report said that the Middle Eastern region is likely to disintegrate further. Moreover, it also said that the Islamic State will continue to be a problem, especially across the Middle Eastern region. Looking back, one can see all of these predictions coming true with the situation across the Middle East becoming more alarming by the day.
The Arab Spring, which flooded across the Middle East a few years ago – which was meant to bring normalcy, more independence from the West, restoration of democracy, stability and prosperity – has further divided the region. Iraq’s disintegration seems unavoidable; Libya is being run by tribal lords and mafias; Egypt is again under the military’s control; Yemen is emerging as a new breeding ground for the Islamist terrorists; and the Syrian problem is getting worse with no resolution in sight.
Saudi Arabia and Iran’s rivalry in the Middle East has hurt regional security to a great extent. The rivalry between the Iran and Saudi Arabia has played itself across the Middle East, from the Palestinian territories to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan and even Afghanistan. Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’a Iran view themselves as the rightful leaders of the Muslim world. While vying for more regional control, both states have used ideological pretexts to further their national interests, which have had serious security implications.
In Yemen, while Saudi Arabia has directly intervened, Iran has supported Houthi rebels and other Shi’a militia groups. In Iraq, after the Saddam Hussain’s fall, Iran has tried to consolidate its influence in the country. In the past, any such development has always been viewed with scepticism by the Gulf monarchies. In this case, the Gulf states have always remained willing to respond with a similar policy of exploiting cross-border tribal ties and providing financial and military support to Sunni militants in Iraq. Recently, a number of Shi’a militias – supported by Iran – took back many towns from the Islamic State in Iraq, which was criticised by Saudi Arabia as an act which can further deepened sectarian divisions.
Iran’s economy has remained isolated for almost three decades because of the sanctions related to its nuclear programme. However, with the sanctions gone – due to the nuclear deal – Iran’s rise as a regional power is inevitable, which sounds alarm bells in the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia. Traditionally, Iran’s strategic rise exposes it to classic counter-balancing in a region such as the Middle East, in which power politics continue to dominate interstate relations. From this perspective, Arab GCC states particularly Saudi Arabia are likely to take some measures to bridge this security dilemma with Iran and perhaps this emerging Cold War style competition across the region through proxies is its manifestation.
The conflict in Syria has drawn in major global powers, which are supporting or opposing various militant groups in the country in a bid to keep or oust President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. While the current Syrian regime is among a few in the region which still maintain friendly ties with Russia, the latter’s intervention is a direct result of its confrontation with the United States. With Russian airpower at its disposal, Syrian military has been slowly taking back the territory which it lost to other rebel groups. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, have been supporting other hard-line Sunni militant groups in a bid to oust Assad. In this convoluted security situation, the Islamic State has been making more territorial gains. The events in Syria have the potential of triggering a wider war that will not just be fought in the Middle East, but also on the streets of other states outside the region: recent suicide bombings in Turkey and France are its clear reflections.
The latest feud in Syria has clearly put Pakistan in a difficult situation. The conflict is likely to have implications in Pakistan as well. Our domestic order has always remained susceptible to Iran and Saudi Arabia’s foreign police moves, which in the past caused sectarian problems in the country.
Thus far, Pakistan has stayed neutral in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In an unprecedented move last year, Pakistan’s parliament passed a resolution to maintain neutrality in Yemen instead of joining the Saudi-led coalition. While Pakistan has reluctantly joined Saudi Arabia’s 34-nation anti-terror coalition, it has clearly stated that it will not support any move that destabilises Syria or strains Islamabad’s relations with Tehran.
Arguably, by staying neutral, Pakistan has taken a clear position in the Syrian theatre. In December 2015, Pakistan’s foreign office stated that, “Pakistan is against foreign military intervention in Syria and fully supports the territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab republic.” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is known to be a close ally of Iran, meaning Saudi Arabia is adamantly opposed to him staying on as president. A few days ago, Sartaj Aziz said that “Pakistan is still awaiting details and technical consultation after which it will decide the extent of its participation” in the coalition.
However, the question remains: can Pakistan walk a tight rope between Saudi Arabia and Iran? Moreover, the general unrest prevailing across the region has triggered an unprecedented migrant crisis, not seen since World War II. All in all, the Middle East is quickly heading towards collapse; or perhaps it has already collapsed, depending on how one look at it.
