Middle East madness

Another disaster in the making

Finally, after years of bloodshed – hundreds of thousands dead, millions upon millions hopelessly displaced – the Syrian civil war is just beginning to move towards some sort of clarity. Government forces have kept supply lines from the Lebanese border in check for the better part of a year. And with Russian airpower helping their advance in key sectors, they have all but encircled Aleppo and nearly cut off crucial rebel (including ISIS) supply lines from Turkey. Once Aleppo falls, it will not be long before Raqqa – the de facto seat of the so-called caliphate – also collapses. It will no longer have the necessary logistical life-support.

Naturally this development has not been taken well in capitals that have invested the last half-decade in trying to dislodge the Assad regime in Damascus. Riyadh, Ankara, Doha, etc, are troubled, to say the least. It’s not just that Damascus will survive. It is also that the west is leaning more and more towards the other group, especially Iran, at a time when the outcome of the present nightmare will define the course of the region for decades. That explains calls from Saudi Arabia and Turkey regarding a possible land invasion of Syria.

Pakistan needs to tread very carefully at this point. Only recently we confirmed, a number of times, about being on board the strange Saudi coalition against terrorism. It is strange because our leadership is still unsure about the alliance’s agenda, yet is a committed part of it. How will we posture, for example, if the Saudis – along with the Turks – really cross the border and initiate a far wider war? Deeply engaged in a war of our own, it is better if Pakistan adopts a strictly neutral stance for the remainder of this conflict. If anything, KSA and Turkey should learn from Pakistan’s example, and avoid stoking conflicts across their borders.