Official moves towards the deployment of a US missile defence system in South Korea in the wake of Pyongyang’s latest rocket launch will increase pressure on Beijing to bring its errant neighbour to heel, analysts say.
But they also highlight the inherent dangers of disunity in dealing with North Korea’s growing military threat, and could presage an arms buildup if China feels threatened by the roll-out.
Hours after North Korea’s long-range rocket launch on Sunday, South Korean and US military officials announced they would begin formal discussions on placing the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System (THAAD) on the North’s doorstep.
The stated rationale was a clear necessity to upgrade the defence posture of the South Korea-US military alliance “against North Korea’s advancing threats,” said Yoo Jeh-Seung, Seoul’s deputy defence minister for policy.
Yoo’s reasoning is hard to fault in the wake of the North’s fourth nuclear explosion on January 6 and Sunday’s rocket launch, which was widely regarded as a covert ballistic missile test.
“This nuclear testing coupled with the testing of ballistic missile technology… was always likely to strengthen the argument that South Korea needs to bolster its missile defences,” said Ben Goodlad, principal weapons analyst at IHS Aerospace, Defence and Security.
But beyond the strategic logic lies a diplomatic imperative, which suggests an eventual THAAD deployment may be less motivated by what North Korea is doing and more by what China is not doing.
