Pakistan today

Realistic perspective on the situation

The PML-N government inherited formidable challenges after winning franchise of the people. It has now completed half of the tenure of its mandate which probably is sufficient time to warrant a realistic perspective on the situation with regard to those challenges. The challenges included an existentialist threat from terrorism and religious extremism; revival of the economy in shambles; tackling an egregious energy crisis with all the accompanying debilitating manifestations; strengthening the nascent democracy; improving security situation in the country and redefining relations with our neighbours which were marred by conflict and animosity.

The government showed a rare commitment and courage to deal with terrorism and religious extremism, which no previous government had the spunk or the will to undertake. Operation Zarb-e-Azb, National Action Plan and targeted operation in Karachi are some of the enviable outcomes of the policy of national consensus and reconciliation dedicatedly pursued by the government.

Consequent upon the successful implementation of these initiatives the back of the terrorists has been broken and their entire infrastructure in North Waziristan dismantled. Terrorists, their supporters and sleeping cells throughout the country have been effectively neutralised. Karachi is fast returning to normalcy as a result of the target operation by the Rangers and the federal government and the military leadership are determined to take it to its logical conclusion, notwithstanding sporadic hiccups. The insurgency in Balochistan has been contained and prospects of reconciliation with the estranged and exiled Baloch leaders look very encouraging. The spate of terrorist acts during January 2016 is nothing more than acts of desperation by the defeated terrorists. The elected and military leadership are resolutely unanimous in the regards to go to any extent to root out the scourge of terrorism.

On the economic front the government has been able to orchestrate discernible revival. In May 2013, the country faced a severe energy crisis. Economic growth was stagnant at below 3%, inflation was at double digit, interest rates were high, budget deficit was at 8.8 % of GDP, investment was on the decline, foreign currency reserves stood at formidably low level and the country faced the prospect of an ignominious default on IMF loans.

Two and half years down the line, the budget deficit has been brought down to 5.3%, inflation has been brought down to 4.53%, credit to agriculture sector has increased to Rs515.87 billion, development spending has touched Rs427.67 billion, GDP growth rate has been enhanced to 4.24%, per capita income has increased to US$1513, stock exchange has touched new heights, interest rate is at the lowest level in the last 42 years, tax recovery has increased significantly from a mere three per cent to a mammoth 16.5 per cent, foreign exchange reserves have swelled to $21 billion which is an all time high mark in the economic history of Pakistan.

The confidence of foreign investors in Pakistan being a safe and profitable destination has also increased as was evident from the response received in the auction of 3G and 4G and the overwhelming acceptance of the Sakuk bonds. For the 5-year bonds, the response came from all geographical regions. Nearly 59 percent were subscribed in US, 19 percent in UK, 10 percent in other European countries, 10 percent in Asia, 8 percent by banks, 7 percent by hedge fund and 1 percent by insurance companies and pension funds. In respect of 10-year bonds also most of the money came from US. This was a result of the strenuous and consistent efforts of the economic managers of Pakistan to show case the marked improvement in economic indicators and the success of economic reforms introduced by the government at all international economic forums.

The turnaround in the economy has been achieved despite the devastating impact of floods on the economy, astronomical expenditure on operation Zarb-e-Azb and the implementation of the National Action Plan and huge payments for debt servicing. The success story has repeatedly been endorsed by the international money lending institutions and rating agencies as well as the international media. IMF has shown confidence in the reform agenda pursued by the government which is amply demonstrated by continuous release of tranches after quarterly reviews. ADB and World Bank are also on record to have testified Pakistan’s success story. The latter in recognition of the phenomenon has also agreed to provide $10.2 billion to Pakistan during the next five years for policy reforms in the energy sector, revenue mobilisation, governance, social sectors and investment in hydro power.

To tackle the energy crisis in the country the government has already added 3,000MW to the system, power producing projects with an accumulative production capacity of 10,000MW have already been launched which are likely to come on stream by the end of 2018. Not only that the government is also contemplating to add another 14,000MW in the years to come.

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is yet another achievement of the PML-N government which rightly has been billed as a game changing initiative with the potential of not only lifting the economic profile of Pakistan but also the entire region. Its successful implementation would undoubtedly bring an economic revolution in Pakistan making it a hub of economic activity for the whole region, accruing unfathomable benefits to the country.

In the domain of foreign relations a new narrative wedded to the cause of promoting peace in the region and creating economic linkage for a shared prosperity has been evolved. Pakistan has been making strenuous efforts in promoting Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation in Afghanistan and fostering cooperation between the two countries in fighting terrorism. And despite some hic-ups along the way there is a renewed hope of getting things back on track. The exponential enhancement of economic relations with China under the umbrella of China-Pak Economic Corridor is another testimonial of the success of the new vision.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also made positive overtures towards India for the revival of the suspended dialogue between the two countries. The recent developments in quick succession including the meeting between the two Prime Ministers at Paris, meeting between the National Security Advisors, visit of Indian foreign minister Islamabad to attend Heart of Asia Conference and a brief stopover in Lahore by Narendra Modi, certainly gave impetus to these efforts and hopes for a new beginning were rekindled before the Pathankot incident happened which resulted in the deferment of the scheduled dialogue between the two countries. However, the responsible manner in which both the countries have reacted and shown their willingness to work together in forestalling the designs of the terrorists and the actions initiated against some non-state actors by Pakistan, the hopes for revival of dialogue are still alive. It is hoped that both the countries would stay on course to build the desired bonhomie.

Pakistan has become full member of the SCO, ground breaking ceremony of TAPI has finally been performed, and relations with Russia have been put on a higher level. Russia will build a gas pipeline between Lahore and Karachi involving a cost of $2billion and both the countries have also concluded a defence deal.

The foregoing are verifiable developments and the country undoubtedly is far better off than in May 2013. There is a discernible change in all spheres of the national life. The ambience of gloom has been transformed into vibrant optimism, though a lot still needs to done.