Testing Kabul and Islamabad alike
The one-step-forward-two-steps-back theme is typical to the post-9/11 Pak-Afghan relationship. Even as the equation became more rounded — and brought in players like China, US, Nato, etc, to wrap up the war through negotiations — the trend did not seem to change. The Murree talks were a great step forward, but the Mullah Omar leak quickly took the air out of the initiative. Subsequent attempts at breakthrough were also systematically followed by carefully planned attacks that kept Islamabad and Kabul more hostile than friendly.
Only lately, though, did the two sides find the good sense not to play into the enemy’s hands after every attempt at sabotage. No doubt both were cajoled by the US and China, since both powers have overriding need for immediate peace in the region for their own purposes. But now there is an altogether new kind of spanner in the works. A good few hundred Afghan scholars have apparently issued a fatwa, declaring the peace process underway “un-Islamic” so long as foreign forces stay in Afghanistan. That this has come just when the Taliban were being sweet-talked into the negotiations – while beset by internal breakdown and disagreement about talks – only makes the situation worse for all concerned, especially Kabul.
It must be remembered that the Taliban are having the best run on the ground so far in this long war. Getting them to talk at this point was already difficult, with field commanders in favour of adding to their military gains. It is all the more important, therefore, to keep the process protected from unnecessary negative influences. Problems like the fatwa can only be handled in kind. Relevant authorities must expose it as just another attempt to leverage religion for political and military gains. The sooner all parties can agree to a formal structure for negotiations – for which the Taliban will have to finally clarify their position – the better for all concerned.
