The general and the controversy

Why announce now?

General Raheel Sharif’s announcement that he does not “believe in extension and will retire on the due date” was generally welcomed as a healthy move. His two predecessors — Pervez Musharraf and Ashfaq Parvez Kayani — got extensions for separate reasons.

However, seen in the light of civil-military relations in Pakistan, the ISPR’s tweet shows where the real power lies? Had it been the defence ministry, which recommends names to the prime minister to choose from for the all-powerful position, it would be telling a totally different story.

Commenting on the issue, Professor Dr Faizullah Jan told DNA that constitutionally an office-holder cannot decide to seek or not to seek an extension; it has to be decided by the office that has the constitutional authority, in this case the prime minister.

Furthermore, the ISPR’s tweet came as a surprise, though a pleasant one, because it was not preceded by any meeting between those who matter or followed by a statement from the government.

“This makes the announcement more meaningful: it was a decision which the COAS took on his own terms,” he said.

The announcement became the lead story in the national media and the subject of popular commentary, as if the press was also taken by surprise.

Dr Jan said General Sharif, unlike his predecessors, has been enjoying the persona of a saviour from day one. “He took the TTP head on, especially after the APS attack; he was the moving spirit behind the National Action Plan, which for the first time set a policy guideline for eliminating terrorism and extremism,” he said.

“General Sharif will be remembered for Zarb-e-Azb, a military operation against terrorists especially in North Waziristan, which other army chiefs had avoided fearing a blowback.”

This operation, which has yet to culminate, has contributed to his hero image in the country. It also elevated his stature, especially in the United States — a country which had been asking for it since long, he said.

“It was this image which created the impression that General Sharif would go for an extension and win it easily from a pliant civil dispensation,” added Jan.

Sit-ins and the civil-military imbalance

There can be no doubt that the balance between civil and military institutions has been moving in favour of the latter for the last couple of years in Pakistan. It started really with the protest movement of Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri that significantly weakened the civilian government, forcing it to accept all the demands of the military on the one hand and on the other hand, the increasing popularity of the military since the operation against the Taliban.

Professor Dr Taimur Rahman was of the opinion that perhaps the most troubling aspect of the equation is the manner in which media is being increasingly controlled by the establishment.

“Alternative points of views are quashed even before they can be aired. Criticism of the military in any way, shape or form is being equated with treason,” said Dr Rahman.

“Such measures cannot lead to the development of an open, self-critical, democratic society.”

He added that recently, when the announcement was made that the army chief would not ask for an extension, the media went into overdrive and solicited public opinion to build support for the extension of General Raheel Sharif.

Dr Rahman opined that regardless of whether an extension is given no not, it seems strange that media should be orchestrating an entire campaign to whip the public into support over such a decision.

Hence, such campaigns and corresponding conjectures can only lead to further discord within the country, not to mention undermining the professionalism that is expected from the journalist community, Dr Rahman added.

Agreeing with Jan, columnist Yasser Latif Hamdani told DNA that General Raheel Sharif’s decision to announce his retirement on schedule was obviously a very welcome development. If it does happen, it is likely to strengthen our civilian institutions and democracy.

“We have to begin by admitting that there is a civil-military imbalance in the country and that the Pakistan army is the one institutional force that is the repository of national sovereignty,” he said.

“This is not necessarily unique to Pakistan. Many countries have gone through it. The whole concept of the sovereign emanates from that sovereign’s ability to impose its decisions with the threat of force.”

Hamdani opined that in Pakistan therefore the military has enjoyed a position of supremacy at least since the mid-1950s, when General Ayub Khan was given extensions and then brought into the cabinet by civilian rulers.

“Only a military chief can ensure that the trend is reversed. I am hoping that man is Raheel Sharif. He is extremely popular with the people and his decision to choose the high road of quitting while he is ahead will set an honourable precedent for future chiefs. At the very least it will preserve the façade of a democratic structure,” he added.

Of course we are painfully aware of the fact that military has encroached on the civilian space in the last couple of years. Much of this has been the result of the civilian government’s failure to assert itself in certain matters, especially foreign affairs.

“What this government desperately needs are competent civilians who can fulfil their roles and negotiate the travails of the aforesaid imbalance,” said Hamdani.

“The military moves in only in a vacuum. If you fill that vacuum with capable, patriotic and selfless people, the military will step back.”

However, Journalist Kunwar Khuldune Shahid was of the opinion that as far as the civil-military balance is concerned, it won’t be bolstered by an army chief not orchestrating a coup or retiring on his ‘due date’.

“The fact remains that all critical policymaking still rests with the establishment. For its transition into the hands of the civilian government, we need institutional changes and not rely on the ‘rationality’ of one general,” Shahid said.

It would take one power hungry military dictator to undo the democratic gains of the past eight years and bring the civil-military relations to square one. Because the ingredients for a coup are very much still there. And that is what needs to be gradually addressed, he added.

General Raheel Sharif is not a ‘yes man’

Agreeing with him, acclaimed journalist and analyst Mubasher Bukhari thinks Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had selected General Raheel Sharif for the slot of COAS, once again believing (like he did in the past while appointing Musharraf) that he would be a ‘yes man’ to him.

“Again, his (Nawaz Sharif) judgment proved wrong as the army under General Sharif did not let him play freely with foreign, defence and economic policies. On the other hand, the army gave a free hand to PML-N in Punjab,” Bukhari said.

“But at the same time, we saw a social media war between the government and ISPR when the two state-organs tried to bag credit for various major and minor successes in war on terror and foreign fronts. It also indicated that the military leadership and the civilian rulers are not comfortable with each other. ”

Bukhari opined that several questions arise after General Sharif’s announcement that he would not take extension. Was he offered extension by the government? Did his advisors mount pressure on him to pressurise the government for extension or take direct action? Or, was it a reaction to a social media campaign that demanded his extension?

Suspicious aspect of ISPR’s announcement

For Shahid the most suspicious aspect about the ISPR’s announcement on behalf of General Raheel Sharif is its timing: immediately after the Bacha Khan University attack.

“Why mention General Sharif’s retirement and imply that he won’t be there to lead Zarb-e-Azb at a time when the military operation has been getting a lot heat and its much touted successes are being questioned?,” he asked.

Then of course one has to question why the good general is mentioning his retirement when the chips are down. A good captain never leaves his ship stuttering, or dare we say, sinking. Is there a hint in this announcement? These are the questions that need to be asked.

General ‘being asked’ to stay cannot be ruled out

Professor Dr Nukhbah Taj Langah said General Raheel Sharif’s retirement may result in temporary civil-military imbalance but is still doubtful as there is a history of generals in quest of extending their terms and nothing can be predicted categorically.

Nevertheless, the combination of corrupt politicians, crumbling institutions, mismanaged governance policies, centre-periphery or interprovincial strains and ethnic divide, ascending extremism, the west associating Pakistani identity with ‘Islamophobia’, the country has to be prepared for yet another crisis, she added. “However, to avoid the repetition of such crises, the progressive and political leadership has to play a mature role in harmonising and stabilising the country.”