Oil rose in Asia Thursday, giving a much-needed breather to the battered crude market, but traders remain on edge as the supply glut and weak demand that has sent prices to more than 12-year lows shows no sign of letting up.
The battered commodity has taken a hammering so far in 2016, with both main contracts already down about 25 per cent. On Wednesday, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell below $27 a barrel for the first time since May 2003, days after Brent touched below$28.
But bargain-hunting provided some support Thursday. WTI for March delivery, a new contract, rose 34 cents, or 1.20 per cent, to $28.69 a barrel by 0330 GMT, while Brent gained 38 cents, or 1.36 per cent, to $28.26. WTI’s February contract sank to as low as $26.19 on its last day of trading in New York on Wednesday before closing at $26.55, the lowest level since May 2003.
However, expectations that a report due later in the day from the energy information administration will show another increase in US commercial stockpiles limited gains, analysts said.
The price of oil has crashed about 75 per cent since mid-2014, hit by an oversupply, overproduction, weak demand and a slowdown in the global economy, especially China.
“With oil already hitting such a low, fundamentals are the key issue right now,” said Phillip Futures analyst Daniel Ang, referring to supplies continuing to outrun demand.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned this week that the oil market could “drown in oversupply” with the return of Iranian crude after the lifting of western sanctions offsetting any output cuts from other countries. While prices are expected to remain subdued, some analysts said they could be close to the bottom.
“I would think the bearishness will continue into the first half of the year, but in terms of hitting a bottom, we are more or less there,” Ang said. “I’m really skeptical of prices hitting below $20,” he said, adding that “$24-$25 will likely prove a very strong support that shouldn’t break.”
