It’s in the prime minister’s hands
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor [CPEC] has been fraught with controversy since the get go. After its launch last year, several questions have arisen as to its modalities—the road route, terms of the loan, effect of Chinese penetration, etc.
The foremost question concerns the land route. Several options have been discussed but it is still not clear which route is going to be adopted.
Concerns of KP and Balochistan
Commenting on the issue, acclaimed historian and political commentator Dr Yaqoob Khan Bangash told DNA that “Controversy over the route has led to anxiety in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan as they do not want to be left behind in the development projects”.
“While a number of people have seen this as needless provincial squabbling, and mere ‘provincialism,’ one can also view it in a positive light — that of the chief ministers being concerned about the development of their provinces”, he said.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan also fears that it would harm the unity of the provinces if the federal government didn’t address the concerns of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan before launching the much-publicised $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
“PTI is in favour of the CPEC project, but we would never like to damage the unity of the provinces,” said Khan.
Khan added that PM Nawaz had announced on May 28, 2015 that the western route of the project would be built first.
“But now we can clearly see that he has deviated from his previous stance,” he added.
“The western route would cost lesser as it is 300 kilometres shorter but the PML-N leadership had created misunderstandings regarding the different routes of the Corridor,” Khan said, adding that “there is only one route and that is the western route, which was originally supposed to pass through KP, Punjab and Balochistan along with establishment of industrial zones and oil and gas pipelines. However, the PML-N leadership is now trying to misguide the people. Pakistan is not a golden sparrow where China would like to spend too much money”.
While a number of people have seen this as needless provincial squabbling, and mere ‘provincialism,’ one can also view it in a positive light — that of the chief ministers being concerned about the development of their provinces
Quite obviously since CPEC is a huge undertaking and all provinces want an equitable share in it; hence it is but natural that they will quarrel over it.
Therefore, what the federal government needs to do is to mediate between them and lead them to realise and develop those projects which fall in their respective provinces and enable them to achieve their potential, according to Dr Bangash.
Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) arranged an all-parties conference On January 10, 2016 to discuss the reservations of Balochistan regarding CPEC.
After the conference it was demanded that the Baloch should not be considered a minority.
“People of Gwadar must be provided with basic facilities of life. Local people should be given priority in the development projects. Fishermen should be given alternate jobs,” the declaration stated.
BNP-M Chairman Akhtar Mengal told the conference that Balochistan should be given its due share in the CPEC project. “The rights of natural resources and sea ports of the province should be handed over to the Balochistan government,” he demanded.
Kept in the dark
Since it is shrouded in secrecy, CPEC seems a more strategic than economic project. In strategic matters, Pakistan as a state has always tried to keep smaller provinces out of the loop.
Political Analyst Raza Rumi was of the opinion that as we are witnessing, CPEC implementation is being impacted by key issues of Pakistan’s governance.
First, the culture of non-transparent decision making. “The information flow from the government has been patchy to say the least and it needs to make its plans public and involve all key stakeholders,” said Raza, adding that a related and secondary issue is that of federalism.
Pakistan is not a central state and the powers of provinces have increased in the recent past. Therefore, it is difficult to bypass them especially in the age of mass media. State capacity is the third challenge. The capacity to plan in a democratic, inclusive manner is still a work in progress.
Rumi thinks CPEC has the potential for altering the way the state works. The optimistic view is that we may learn to improve our development planning processes. Perhaps the most immediate concern is that the constitutional body — the CCI –is not being used to steer CPEC related decisions.
“That forum will result in a better agreement between centre and the regions thereby leading to better implementation of CPEC, other than strengthening constitutionalism in the country,” said Rumi.
Agreeing with Rumi, political analyst Nusrat Javed said, “The communication strategy that the government adopted to promote this idea was faulty from the word go.”
Khan shared that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) on CPEC was signed in January 2013, but there was still ambiguity about the project. He complained that the PML-N leaders and the federal government had kept them in the dark.
“The federal government was reluctant to show the copy of the agreement,” Imran Khan claimed.
All-parties conference on CPEC
A meeting of the heads of all the parliamentary parties chaired by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to address their concerns over China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on Friday ended with a consensus to form a steering committee comprising chief ministers of four provinces. The steering committee will meet every three months to review progress of the project.
Appreciating the announcement Dr Bangash said, “The move of the prime minister in creating a steering committee of all chief ministers is certainly welcome in this regard. However, the committee must not end up as a squabbling venue, but should become an opportunity for chief ministers to learn from each other and cooperate on development projects.”
He added that the prime minister should also use this committee to ensure that all provinces have an equitable share in CPEC projects so all parts of Pakistan grow as a result.
Federations are historically very hard to manage since the government always has to play a careful balancing act in ensuring that it treats all constituent units equitably, since dissent is very easy to sow and very hard to contain. In the current scenario, some people have erroneously compared the treatment of the smaller provinces to that of East Pakistan.
While on the face of it there might be some similarity, in reality it is comparing apples and oranges. East Pakistan was more populous and earned a much larger share of foreign exchange than West Pakistan, and hence it was rightly angry that neither was its greater population being given the due democratic representation and nor was a proportionate share of development money being spent in the province; neither is the case in present day Pakistan. That said, the federation needs to take all provinces along while developing CPEC.
Dr Bangash added that while all CPEC projects look good on the face of it, and will lead to development in the country, we must be cognizant of its effects on our state and society. With such a large project practically handled from Beijing we are surrendering a large part of our sovereignty to a foreign government.
“Already we have leased Gwadar to China, and CPEC will ensure greater control and penetration of the Chinese in Pakistan,” Dr Bangash said.
“With India on one side, Iran on the other, and a volatile Middle East, CPEC has more strategic implications than we have realised and therefore we must first study its impact before going head on with it. Properly managed CPEC will help Pakistan, but unchecked it will make us beholden to a foreign country more than places were during the colonial period. ”
In the absence of internal clarity on the Pakistani side, CPEC always runs the risk of remaining an ‘idea’ that could never be materialised because the ‘potential gains’ may not be allocated fairly between provinces
The recent all parties conference is a step in the right direction, but we need more debate on the topic so lawmakers and the people know more about it and own it after deliberation. In Pakistan we often get scared of public debate, but in a democracy — if we are to ever become one — it is the only way forward, said Dr Bangash.
CPEC funding
Furthermore, a large part of the CPEC money is not grants but loans, which, as we often tend to forget, we have to one day repay with interest. There has yet been little discussion as to the affordability of such an investment and our ability to repay it without a debilitating impact on our economy. The Pakistani people are already under a mountain of debt and increasing it without thinking is going to ruin us further in the long term.
Agreeing with what Bangash said, political economist Shahram Azhar said that there are two sides to the problem. The first aspect has to do with the internal politics of Pakistan; with any project that has stakes as high as CPEC does (it is estimated at $2.1 billion for the current year) there is, without a shred of doubt, a lot of “rent-seeking” activity.
To add to this, there is an enormous level of mistrust — and not without good reasons — between the centre and the provinces in Pakistan regarding the distribution of the gains from the whole project.
“This is also why the IMF has recently asked the Pakistani government to make the disbursements as transparent as possible,” said Azhar.
The second reason has to do with China; as you may know, Chinese growth is slowing down, and is creating ripples not just in China but also the rest of the world. In general, but especially in these circumstances, for any investment to be fruitful, the ‘investor’ must have ‘security’. Unfortunately, CPEC will have to run through Gilgit-Baltistan, which is still a disputed territory between the two neighbouring countries (Indo-Pak). A solution to this problem is therefore connected to the larger story, and hence CPEC, he added.
In the absence of internal clarity on the Pakistani side, CPEC always runs the risk of remaining an ‘idea’ that could never be materialised because the ‘potential gains’ may not be allocated fairly between provinces — as has been the case throughout Pakistani history.
However, Khan opined that it is the responsibility of the prime minister and his government to inform the people of Pakistan that the Chinese were giving a loan of $46 billion, not making any investment, to Pakistan and the entire nation would be bound to return it.
“The whole nation has to return the loan so the money should be spent as per the aspirations of the people of all the provinces,” he demanded.
