Alarm bells ringing for South Asian diplomacy again
There was euphoria at the close of 2015, about India and Pakistan finally being able to get along sufficiently enough to start talking again. Hard-line, hawkish Modi seemed more promising than ever and PM Sharif was more than willing to return the favour. Then the calendar year changed, so did the euphoria.
The Pathankot attack is an impeccable example of how things go wrong exactly at the time when they shouldn’t. Again the attack on the Indian consulate at Mazar-i-Sharif reinforced the message – that Pakistan and India cannot break the impasse just yet.
Besides India and Pakistan, any incident of terrorism sends a message all over the world that war on terror has failed, and the world definitely is not the place many would like it to be.
Pathankot under attack – is Pakistan to blame?
Pakistan has an interesting role in the entire geo-political scenario. Being one of the major victims of terrorism, it has often been labelled as a sponsor of terrorism at the same time. This label has many times wrecked our foreign standing, and we have always faced the ‘do more’ mantra in the comity of nations. This becomes even more prominent while dealing with India. The same has happened now.
Ever since partition India and Pakistan have been hurling blame at each other. The bloody memories of ‘47, the impasse of enmity, the hard-liners on both sides, and pseudo-patriotic notions have kept this rivalry going. Now militancy has added fuel to the fire. Since most of the militants claim to be endorsing and enforcing Islam, this poses an issue for Pakistan. The world’s perception about Pakistan has totally changed, and hence India undoubtedly stands taller than us in the comity of nations. Consequently, it gets a lot of opportunities to malign and vilify Pakistan verbally, pretty intermittently.
Pakistan has an interesting role in the entire geo-political scenario. Being one of the major victims of terrorism, it has often been labelled as a sponsor of terrorism at the same time
With Modi visiting Pakistan, it seemed that both the countries would at least start talking. The recent book of Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri had also proven to be an important step forward, along with the response to it by the Indian civil society. Geopolitics and the demands of world order also pose an implicit pressure on both nations to start talking, and though controversial owing to the involvement of Jindal the steel tycoon, Modi’s diplomatic manoeuvre had borne fruit.
But that’s the end of that chapter. Allegedly Pakistan based Jaish-e-Mohammed was the main culprit behind the Pathankot attack. So does the blame automatically fall on Pakistan for inability to control militancy? It is crystal clear to the world that Pakistan has learned from its past mistakes, and will not support any policy that gives the least hint of it adopting militancy as an instrument of foreign policy or defence.
Mansoor Alam, a former Pakistani ambassador, talked to DNA on this matter. According to him, there is no problem for Pakistan unless some government official is involved. But if that happens, there would be problems.
However, until now no involvement of government has been found in any manner. So Indian media needs to stop its Pakistan bashing and realise that there is more to national security than blame games. This has been proposed to them for various reasons. Firstly, the attack at this point in time is interesting. Ensuring that Pakistan-India impasse never breaks can be a major reason. Obviously, Pakistan cannot do that, since the focus of the Pakistani government is now on the region, rather than running after the west. Secondly, the group that is allegedly involved, Jaish-e-Mohammed, has been banned in Pakistan since 2002. Evidently, all activities of this group are clandestine and not state-sponsored. Thirdly, the whole world is under fire. Even Pakistani airbase in Badaber was attacked recently, and Pakistan did not go India bashing on the incident. Fourthly, even Indian sources have acknowledged the fact that there was some intelligence report one day prior to the attack, and even then the airbase was not fully equipped to counter any attack.
So whose fault is it? Pakistan’s maybe? But in case our eastern neighbour has not noted we are officially at war against internal terror networks. It has been more than a year and a half since we launched Zarb-e-Azb, and a lot has been achieved. Naturally, things do not happen overnight. Owing to the disputed nature of the Durand Line, Pakistan faces a challenge in exterminating and uprooting militants completely. But still it is committed. Pakistan itself has had tremendous losses in this regard. We have lost many civilians, soldiers, and prominent officials like Shuja Khanzada, one of our best men.
Therefore the candid advice to both Pakistan and India in this hour is not to put the talks on hold, and stop hurling blame and accusations. Both countries will have to talk; they do not have any other option. They will have to coordinate for the solution of various problems. Terrorism is one of them. It cannot be resolved in isolation
Attack on Indian consulate in Afghanistan
Khurshid Kasuri has stated in his book that diplomatically Pakistan has to deal with a number of trilateral relationships. India-Afghanistan-Pakistan is one of them.
The attack on the Indian consulate in Afghanistan too is a very undesirable event. Although having taken place in Afghanistan, this has severe implications for Pakistan as well. This shows that the terrorists are gaining strength once again, and have mustered enough courage to go to any lengths to achieve their end.
This implies that Pakistan needs to pull its own socks up, and accelerate its anti-terrorist activities, in order to ensure its own internal stability and peace, and in order to stand tall internationally. After all, no one likes to talk to a state that has failed to ensure its own stability and the movement across its borders.
Is war of terror really doing any good?
Despite war on terror being a major buzz word for over a decade now, radicalisation and militancy have become a prominent force in the world. The 21st century came with drastic changes that have fundamentally, deeply and totally altered the world. The war on terror was officially launched after 9/11, and what it has brought with it are bombings.
OK, so what happens next? Will Pakistan and India ever be able to cut a good deal? Or every effort to start talking will get back to square one eventually?
A video clip by Al Jazeera showed the stats of war on terror – and they are horrific. From 2002-2014, the deaths from terrorism went up by 4500 percent. The number of civilians killed in Afghanistan alone by insurgents has been the highest since UN records began. There have been around 486 suicide attacks in Pakistan, leading to over 6,000 deaths.
Something has definitely gone wrong, and the complete war on terror has proven to be a total failure, leading to deaths and more deaths. An eye for an eye used to be the rule of thumb. But now this is not so. The disproportionate response of US after 9/11 and the Islam-phobic narrative has led to backlash and hatred. The bombings in Iraq created a vacuum that led to the rising of ISIS. The Syrian refugee crisis hence is an aftermath as well.
Therefore the major powers need to rigorously reconsider their strategy on terrorism. It won’t be curbed like this. The fallout of the modern day imperialistic battles has affected countries in all continents, especially this part of the world. India-Pakistan relationship had always been in doldrums. Factor in backlash of terrorists, and another problem is added to the portfolio.
Future of diplomatic ties
OK, so what happens next? Will Pakistan and India ever be able to cut a good deal? Or every effort to start talking will get back to square one eventually?
These are some questions one finds oneself asking. The answer lies in our geography. We exist side by side, and thinking that we can operate in isolation is unreal. Getting over past hostilities and working collaboratively to tackle all the mutual and regional issues is the only option we have.
Pakistan and India will have to talk.